Food Outlook For 2024/25: Maize And Wheat Yields Decline, Barley And Sorghum Yields Increase

The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) recently released its forecast report on global food supply and demand for 2024/25, indicating a relatively optimistic trend. However, maize and wheat production among the major food crops exhibited a downward trajectory. Specifically, FAO anticipates global cereal production to reach 2.846 billion tonnes in 2024/25, approximately matching the record level achieved in 2023/24. While corn and wheat yields have declined, crops such as barley, sorghum, and rice are expected to experience growth, partially offsetting the decrease in corn and wheat production.

It is noteworthy that adverse weather conditions in the Black Sea region may lead to downward revisions in global wheat production for 2024/25. Simultaneously, the decline in corn production primarily stems from reduced planted area and yield per unit. In contrast, barley, sorghum, and rice are projected to demonstrate an increase in acreage and yield per unit area.

Furthermore, FAO forecasts a 0.5% rise in total global cereal demand for 2024/25 amounting to a record high of 2.851 billion tonnes. Among these figures, food consumption is expected to exhibit the highest growth rate at 1.1%, driven by increased demand for rice along with coarse grains and wheat products. Additionally, feed consumption will experience marginal growth at a rate of 0.4%.

Regarding stocks analysis; it is anticipated that global cereal ending stocks will witness a surge of approximately 1.5% reaching an all-time high of 897 million tonnes by the end of fiscal year 2024/25.This upsurge can be attributed mainly due to augmented reserves of coarse grains alongside rice while conversely; wheat stocks are likely to plummet reaching their lowest levels observed over recent years.

The production of major food crops has experienced a decline; nevertheless, the global food supply is expected to remain relatively ample. However, it is crucial to take into account the impact of extreme weather in the Black Sea region and other factors that may significantly affect wheat production. Therefore, it is imperative for the industry to closely monitor subsequent developments in order to ensure stable and sustainable global food security.