Methanol Market Price Fluctuations and Operations

August 1st, according to reports

According to the commodity market analysis system, from July 28 to July 31 (up to 15:00), the quotation for methanol in the East China port of China increased initially and then decreased from 2,394 CNY/ton to around 2,380 CNY/ton. The price fell by 0.59% during this period, down 5.99% month-over-month, and down 5.18% year-over-year. The Chinese methanol market shows signs of recovery, with olefin plants in Northwest China increasing their external procurement, coupled with some facilities still undergoing maintenance and low inventory levels among enterprises. Upstream companies are holding firm on prices and selling, while downstream companies are passively following.

As of the close on August 1st, the methanol futures closing price on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange in China fell. The main contract for methanol futures 2509 opened at 2403 CNY/ton, reached a high of 2417 CNY/ton, a low of 2385 CNY/ton, and closed at 2393 CNY/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan or 0.79% from the previous trading day's settlement. The volume was 505,219 lots, with 533,076 open contracts, and a daily change in open interest of -31,338.

Methanol Spot and Futures Comparison Chart:

As of August 1, the summary of methanol market prices in various regions of China:

Cost side, coal supply has slightly decreased but the impact is limited, demand release is slow, and cost support remains weak. Methanol costs are influenced by bearish factors.

Coal/Thermal Coal (Upstream Raw Material) - Methanol Price Trend Comparison Chart:

Demand Side: Glacial acetic acid: Prices of glacial acetic acid fluctuated, with prices at factories in Northwest China increasing by 50 CNY/ton. Formaldehyde: The formaldehyde market remained stable. Raw material methanol strengthened, leading to increased costs. Dimethyl ether: The dimethyl ether market operated steadily. Most downstream products rose due to the impact of rising methanol prices, indicating favorable factors on the demand side for methanol.

Methanol-Acetic Acid (Downstream Product) Price Trend Comparison Chart:

Methanol-MTBE (downstream product) price trend comparison chart:

Supply side, Shanghai Huayi and Xinjiang Zhongtai are conducting plant maintenance; Gansu Liuhua, Gengyang New Energy, and Xinjiang Zhongtai have resumed operations. Overall, the amount of resumed production exceeds the amount of lost production, leading to an increase in the capacity utilization rate. The supply side of methanol is affected by bearish factors.

Regarding external markets, as of the close on July 30, the CFR Southeast Asia methanol market closed at USD 332.50-333.50 per ton. The US Gulf methanol market closed at 95-96 cents/gallon, down 1 cent/gallon; the FOB Rotterdam methanol market closed at EUR 245.5-246.5 per ton, up EUR 7 per ton.

Looking ahead, enterprises clearly intend to maintain prices, but traditional downstream sectors are somewhat resistant to continued price increases, which to some extent limits the room for price growth. Methanol analysts expect China's methanol spot market to likely consolidate with a bullish trend.