Regional Disparities in Methanol Market Trends

September 18, News

According to the commodity market analysis system, from September 11 to 18 (up to 3:00 PM), the quotation for methanol in the East China port of the Chinese market first rose and then fell from 2,290 CNY/ton to around 2,261 CNY/ton. The price decreased by 1.24% during the period, down 2.46% month-over-month, and down 5.83% year-over-year. The methanol inventory at the port saw a slight inventory accumulation, with high inventory levels continuing to suppress the market. Currently, there are no positive factors to boost the market, and the market performance is weak. Influenced by pre-holiday restocking by downstream customers and stable demand for olefins domestically, the domestic methanol market continued to rise.

As of the close on September 18, the methanol futures closing price on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange in China fell. The main contract of methanol futures 2601 opened at 2373 CNY/ton, with the highest price at 2376 CNY/ton and the lowest price at 2339 CNY/ton. It closed at 2346 CNY/ton, a decrease of 34 yuan from the previous trading day's settlement price, a price decrease of 1.43%. The trading volume was 595,422 lots, the open interest was 942,904, and the daily increase in open interest was 106,296.

Methanol Spot vs Futures Comparison Chart:

As of September 18, the summary of methanol market prices in various regions of China:

Cost Side: Several coal mines have temporarily halted production, leading to a slight tightening of supply and pushing coal prices higher as cost pressures rebound. Meanwhile, methanol costs are benefiting from relatively positive factors on the cost side.

Coal/Steam Coal (Upstream Raw Material) - Methanol Price Trend Comparison Chart:

Demand Side, glacial acetic acid: The market price of glacial acetic acid continues to rise. Formaldehyde: The formaldehyde market is stable with a slight decline. Dimethyl ether: The dimethyl ether market is largely stable with minor fluctuations. The Henan Xinlianxin plant has resumed operations, increasing the supply in the market, and dimethyl ether factories have a strong desire to reduce inventory. The demand for most downstream products is mixed due to the impact of methanol prices.

Methanol-Acetic Acid (Downstream Product) Price Trend Comparison Chart:

Methanol-MTBE (downstream product) price trend comparison chart:

Supply side, Inner Mongolia Rongxin and Guizhou Tianfu are undergoing plant maintenance; Anhui Haoyuan, Jinchuan Huayu, and Inner Mongolia Xinao have reduced production; Yankuang Guohong, Ningxia Baofeng, and Xianyang Petroleum have resumed operations. The overall recovery volume is less than the loss volume, leading to a decrease in the capacity utilization rate. Methanol supply is influenced by favorable factors.

On the international markets, as of the close on September 16, the CFR Southeast Asia methanol market closed at $325.5–326.5 per ton. Meanwhile, the FOB U.S. Gulf methanol market settled at 98–99 cents per gallon, while the FOB Rotterdam, Europe methanol market ended the day at €291.5–292.5 per ton.

Looking ahead, as northwest olefin producers cut their output and reduce shipments, traders are seeing limited opportunities to shift orders, while downstream buyers continue to primarily push for lower prices. A methanol analyst expects China’s spot methanol market to remain stable and cautious in the near term.