In September, the MTBE market in China showed a strong fluctuation

September 29, News

According to the commodity market analysis system, the MTBE market in China showed a strong fluctuation in September. From September 1st to 29th, the price of MTBE increased from 5007 CNY/ton to 5050 CNY/ton, with a price increase of 0.85% within the period, and the maximum fluctuation was 3.39%. The price decreased by 9.13% year-over-year.

After entering September, China's MTBE market has largely remained sideways, with limited room for price fluctuations. Supported by sustained gains in international crude oil prices and moderate restocking activities among end-users, market prices have stayed firm. However, toward the end of the month, prices edged slightly lower as industry players paused their phased-in restocking efforts. As the month drew to a close, manufacturers began looking to clear existing inventories, leading to a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers and resulting in a narrow, weaker trading range for the market.

MTBE China Production Price Average Trend Chart:

On the cost front, international crude oil prices have been trending upward. In the first half of the month, market concerns about OPEC+ potentially launching a new production increase plan heightened fears of an oversupply, causing international oil prices to decline. By mid-month, uncertainty surrounding the Russia-Ukraine situation persisted, and with the U.S. signaling that it was keeping sanctions against Russia as an option, oil prices rebounded. Later in the month, as the intensity of the Russia-Ukraine conflict escalated, growing market worries over potential supply risks pushed international oil prices higher once again.

Demand Side: On the gasoline terminal demand front, after the National Day holiday, operators are either running low on inventory or have some purchasing needs—but these are unlikely to sustain. Demand is expected to gradually weaken in the mid-to-late period, prompting operators to maintain only essential procurement of related gasoline feedstocks. Meanwhile, MTBE demand continues to be weighed down by bearish market factors.

On the supply side, previously shut-down facilities have plans to resume operations, with Xinrui Chemical and Huangshi Tianyuan among those expected to start up soon. There is also a possibility that the new facility of Sanjiang Petrochemical might begin operations. Some large manufacturers' dehydrogenation units may undergo maintenance. Overall, these factors suggest a slight increase in the supply of MTBE resources. The overall supply situation for MTBE in China is influenced by bearish factors.

As of September 29, the MTBE factory prices from some Chinese production enterprises are as follows:

As of the close on September 26, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market increased by $4.06/ton compared to the previous trading day, with FOB Singapore at $677.97-679.97/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market increased by $21.25/ton compared to the previous trading day, with FOB ARA at $872.99-873.49/ton. The closing price of the U.S. MTBE market increased by $12.07/ton compared to the previous trading day, with FOB Gulf at $845.84-846.20/ton (238.83-238.93 cents/gallon).

Market Forecast: With both supply and demand remaining weak, MTBE analysts believe the Chinese MTBE market is likely to enter a consolidation phase.