September 4th News Curve Comparison Chart
According to Spotcom data: The average price of LLDPE (7042) on August 28 was 8,506 CNY/ton, and on September 3 it was 9,125 CNY/ton, an increase of 7.27%. The average price of LDPE (2426H) on August 28 was 10,766 CNY/ton, and on September 3 it was 11,733 CNY/ton, an increase of 8.98%. The average price of HDPE (5000S) on August 28 was 10,612 CNY/ton, and on September 3 it was 10,937 CNY/ton, an increase of 3.06%.
The concentrated maintenance of petrochemical facilities in the earlier period, which led to a contraction in the supply available on the market, has been the core driver behind this round of price increases—among them, LDPE has been most significantly affected by the maintenance activities. As maintenance units gradually resume production starting in September, domestically produced supplies will be released incrementally, while coal-to-olefins plants continue to operate at high capacity utilization rates. In the later stage, the anticipated increase in imports due to newly commissioned overseas capacity will further limit the room for further price hikes. Currently, overall inventory levels remain relatively low, providing some support and acting as a floor for prices.
Downstream operations have moderately recovered from the low point in August, with essential demand for agricultural films and pipes improving. However, most industries are only maintaining essential purchases as needed, showing little willingness to actively replenish inventories. The expected peak season of September has diverged from reality, with high finished goods inventory and thin profit margins, leading to strong resistance to high-priced raw materials. Demand has only seen a weak recovery, serving only to support the market, and is insufficient to drive a significant unilateral price increase.
Oil-based PE follows the high and volatile trend of crude oil and ethylene, providing a cost floor support for spot prices. However, crude oil lacks sustained upward momentum, making it difficult to further boost quotations.
The short-term polyethylene market in China will shift from a rapid increase to a high-level fluctuation, lacking strong momentum for further significant gains. However, low inventory and cost support will provide a bottom for prices. As maintenance facilities gradually resume production, supply pressure will become more evident, and downstream demand will be limited in accepting high-priced raw materials, capping the upside potential of the market.
