Geopolitical Risks Escalate, Acrylonitrile Prices Rise Driven by Cost Increases in China

March 3 news

After the Spring Festival, the Chinese acrylonitrile market hit bottom and saw a slight rebound in some areas, mainly supported by cost factors. Recently, with the escalation of geopolitical risks in the Middle East, international crude oil and propylene prices have risen, increasing the cost pressure on acrylonitrile and thus stimulating a broader price increase. The overall price increase is around 200 CNY/ton. Major suppliers in Shandong are quoting spot prices at 7,400 CNY/ton ex-works, and prices at ports in East China have also risen to 7,600-7,700 CNY/ton. Considering that some factories have announced maintenance plans recently, it is expected that the market will maintain an upward trend in the short term.

I. Cost factors are driving acrylonitrile prices to rebound from their bottom.

Since the fourth quarter of last year, the production loss of acrylonitrile in China has gradually expanded to over 1,000 CNY/ton, and there are no signs of improvement entering 2026. Before this round of price rebound, the price of acrylonitrile had once again fallen to a historical low of around 7,000 CNY/ton. As the duration of losses extended, some factories announced shutdown or maintenance plans after the Spring Festival, including Fushun Petrochemical, which has already shut down, CNOOC Fudao, which plans to shut down for maintenance for about 25 days at the end of March, Korole, which will undergo major maintenance from April to June, and currently, large plants such as Silianbang are still operating at low loads. Due to the recovery phase of demand after the festival, the reduction in supply, combined with increased cost pressure, has provided particularly significant support to the market.

China Acrylonitrile Industry Chain Price Comparison (Unit: CNY/ton)

Trend Chart of Theoretical Profit for Acrylonitrile Production (CNY/ton) from 2025 to 2026

II. The short-term impact of acrylonitrile exports is limited.

In recent years, China's acrylonitrile export volume has been increasing year by year, but trade with the Middle East remains relatively limited. In 2025, China exported a total of 311,000 tons of acrylonitrile, with an export dependence of around 8.4%, of which about 16,000 tons were exported to Saudi Arabia, accounting for 5.1%. In the short term, the situation in the Middle East will have a limited impact on the overall export situation of acrylonitrile, but in the long run, factors such as rising freight costs may affect the export volume of acrylonitrile to the Middle East and surrounding areas to some extent.

III. The supply side continues to dominate the long-term price trend of acrylonitrile.

In the short term, fluctuations in the cost side provide momentum for acrylonitrile price increases, but this is still based on the expectation of reduced supply. As an intermediate product, the pressure on the cost side must affect production changes and be realized to have a fundamental impact on prices. It is expected that the market will still have room for upward exploration, but attention should still be paid to changes in the supply and demand pattern. It is expected that the ongoing uncertainties in the supply side will continue to suppress market volatility.