September 11 News Curve Comparison Chart
According to Spotcom data: The average price of LLDPE (7042) in China was 9,123 CNY/ton on September 7th and 9,466 CNY/ton on September 11th, an increase of 3.76%. The average price of LDPE (2426H) in China was 11,900 CNY/ton on September 7th and 12,200 CNY/ton on September 11th, an increase of 2.52%. The average price of HDPE (5000S) in China was 10,925 CNY/ton on September 7th and 11,100 CNY/ton on September 11th, an increase of 1.60%.
In August, multiple PE plants in China underwent concentrated maintenance, leading to a contraction in supply, a decline in petrochemical inventory, and strengthened support for spot prices. In September, as these maintenance plants gradually resume production, supply in China will progressively increase. The short-term supply pressure is still limited, but the incremental supply will become more evident over time.
September marks the traditional peak season for agricultural film, and demand has shown some rebound compared to the previous month. However, downstream product profits have been squeezed by rising raw material costs, prompting companies to adopt a strategy of rigid demand procurement and discouraging them from stocking up large quantities. As a result, demand can only provide a floor level, making it difficult to sustain a significant upward push in prices.
International crude oil has been boosted by geopolitical factors, raising the cost of oil-based PE production, which is the core support for this round of market activity. The cost of coal, the raw material for coal-based PE, has not fluctuated much and remains relatively stable. If crude oil prices fall subsequently, the cost support for oil-based production will weaken, putting pressure on the market.
The current PE market trend is driven by rising costs and previous supply reductions. In the short term, it will remain at a high level with fluctuations, supported by low inventory and the peak season for agricultural films. As production facilities resume operations and the peak season expectations are gradually realized, there is a risk of a price drop in the medium to later stages.
