Expected Short-term Peak Season Surge, This Week's Polyester Chip Market in China Shows High-level Fluctuations

April 3 news

This week (March 31 - April 3), the polyester bottle chip market showed a high-level fluctuation with an initial decline followed by a rebound, primarily driven by the interplay of cost factors, tight supply, and cautious demand. As of April 3, according to price data, the weekly average price for water-grade spot in East China was 8,780 CNY/ton. At the beginning of the week, influenced by the easing of geopolitical tensions and a drop in oil prices, the price fell from around 8,800 CNY/ton to 8,600-8,650 CNY/ton. In the middle of the week, the market remained at a low level, with downstream buyers mainly making small, necessary purchases. Starting from Thursday, the price rebounded, driven by maintenance at major PTA plants and a strengthening basis, returning to around 8,800 CNY/ton. By Friday, the main quotes were between 8,700-8,750 CNY/ton. Overall, the market was dominated by strong cost support, tight supply, and cautious demand.

II. Core Market Analysis

1. Cost side: Geopolitics + oil prices—strong support

• The situation in the Middle East remains tense, and international crude oil prices are fluctuating at high levels (Brent around $118 per barrel).

• Major PTA producers undergo maintenance, basis strengthens, and raw material costs rise.

• The production cost of bottle chips is about 7,509 CNY/ton, with a gross profit of 443 CNY/ton, still profitable.

2. Supply side: Low production levels, tight spot supply

• Industry operating rate 71.7% (a slight increase from the previous period)

• Large factories are controlling supply and reducing contract sales, leading to the lowest social inventory in six months in China.

• Spot supply is limited, making it difficult to obtain goods, and the basis is strengthening.

3. Demand side: Peak season expectations, but high prices are inhibiting.

•China: The peak season stocking for beverages has started, but high prices are suppressing purchases. Downstream buyers are making small orders as needed and digesting inventory.

• Exports: February exports totaled 430,000 tons (down 15.39% month-on-month), but still up year-on-year, supported by restocking overseas.

III. Outlook for the Future Market (Forecast of Future Price Trends Based on the Commodity Pricing System)

I. Short-term (1-3 weeks): High-level, slightly strong fluctuations; surge during peak season.

Trend characteristics: The short-term moving average (10-day) is showing an upward trend, while the medium-term moving average (20-day) is trending downward. Currently, there are signs that the short-term moving average may cross above the long-term moving average, indicating strong short-term upward momentum.

Positional characteristics: The 10-day short-term moving average is at the upper end of the 5-level scale (1 point); the 20-day moving average is at the middle of the 5-level scale (3 points); and the 30-day moving average is at the upper end of the 5-level scale (1 point).

Core judgment: The price range of 8,500–9,000 CNY/ton is consolidating strongly, with a short-term possibility of testing the 9,200 CNY/ton level.

Risk points: A significant drop in oil prices, increased resistance to high prices downstream, and a slowdown in purchasing.

(2) Mid-term (1-3 months): Fluctuating and declining, gradually returning to a rational range.

Positional Characteristics: The current price is in a state of overvaluation for the past year, trading at a 20% premium over the median value of 7,355 CNY/ton and a 43.1% premium over the average value of 6,168.75 CNY/ton. The position score remains persistently low, and downward pressure from higher levels continues to accumulate.

Trend characteristics:

• New capacity coming online: Approximately 1.35 million tons of new capacity will become available in 2026, with commissioning concentrated in the second half of the year, leading to an ample supply.

• End of peak season: Beverage demand softened at the end of Q3, and downstream players entered the inventory-clearing phase.

• Easing costs: New PX capacity comes online at year-end, PTA processing fees recover, and cost support weakens.

• Shift in supply and demand: Moving from a tight balance to a weak balance/slight easing.

Key judgment: Prices will gradually fall back to between 8,000 and 8,600 CNY per ton, with the average price declining compared to the first half of the year.