April China MIBK Market Maintains High Stability

April 30th, news:

In April, the Chinese MIBK market showed a high-level consolidation trend, with prices remaining at the highest level of the year. Affected by the interplay of costs and supply and demand, the fluctuations were mild. The overall situation was characterized by "stable supply and weak demand," with prices slightly retreating but still within the high range of the past year.

In April, the price of MIBK showed a slight oscillating downward trend. On April 1, the benchmark price was 12,500.00 CNY/ton, dropping to 12,266.67 CNY/ton by April 29—a price decrease of 1.87%. Quotations in Shandong Province showed significant divergence, with the mainstream range between 12,000 and 12,300 CNY/ton. Currently, prices remain at nearly one-year highs and have been labeled as “overextended for the past year.”

China's MIBK effective capacity is 210,000 tons. In April, the operating rate was high. Although a certain company in Hunan suspended its operations, it did not affect the overall supply. As a core global producer, China's export volume in 2025 was 92,000 tons, an increase of 18.3% year-on-year, and the import dependency decreased, supporting stable supply.

The weak demand situation on the consumer side remains unchanged, and purchasing intentions remain sluggish. Core demand for MIBK is concentrated in sectors such as coatings and inks. In April, downstream purchasing sentiment was subdued, with companies mostly procuring materials on an as-needed basis. Weak demand is restraining price increases, and some companies have even lowered prices to reduce inventory levels.

Core influencing factors: limited cost support, with supply-demand dynamics taking the lead. Fluctuations in acetone prices—used as a raw material—have only a limited supporting effect. Acetone accounts for more than 60% of MIBK production costs. In April, acetone prices initially fell and then rose; although there were phased price increases, the weak demand for MIBK constrained the effectiveness of cost support, squeezing corporate profits.

SpotCom: On April 27, the average difference for MIBK continued to expand negatively to -315.00 CNY/ton. (Average difference = M10 - M20 = 12730.00 - 13045.00). The average difference continued to expand negatively on that day, with the M10 and M20 moving averages further diverging, indicating an accelerating decline in the MIBK market in China.

Looking at the situation, the high-level consolidation of MIBK in April in China was a balance between cost and demand, characterized by "high prices, weak demand, and stable supply." Looking ahead, supply is expected to remain stable, and short-term demand is unlikely to improve from its current weakness. It is projected that prices will fluctuate between 8,000 and 12,500 CNY per ton. In the long term, with the release of high-end demand, prices are expected to stabilize and potentially rise.