Revised for clarity and natural English phrasing: The title of the article is: [July Chinese Refinery Petcoke Prices First Rise Then Fall]
July 31 news
According to the commodity analysis system, the price of petcoke from local refineries in July first increased and then decreased, with an overall upward trend. The average price of medium-sulfur petcoke products from major local refineries in China was 3,310.75 CNY/ton on July 31, up from 3,188.50 CNY/ton on July 1, representing an overall increase of 3.83%.
On the cost side: In July, international crude oil prices experienced a volatile roller-coaster ride—first oscillating upward in the early part of the month, then surging sharply in the latter half only to quickly reverse and fall back. At the beginning of the month, Brent crude oil traded in a weak, consolidating range, reflecting a market logic of loose supply and demand. Starting from mid-month, as U.S.-Iran tensions continued to escalate, shipping volumes through the two major oil transportation routes—the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandeb Strait—plummeted dramatically, causing geopolitical risk premiums to rise rapidly and driving oil prices higher. However, after reaching their peak, the market gradually digested the heightened conflict expectations. Coupled with weak global terminal demand for crude oil and the IEA’s downward revision of the full-year growth rate in crude oil demand, the OPEC+ production increases combined with stable output from U.S. shale oil created a supply-demand offset, leading to a sharp drop in oil prices at the end of the month.
Supply side: In July, some local refineries in Shandong region underwent maintenance and load reduction adjustments. The operation of coking units showed a trend of initially decreasing and then rebounding. At the beginning of the month, the operating load of coking units declined in stages, leading to a contraction in the circulation volume of petroleum coke, with tight spot supply supporting a rapid surge in coke prices. By mid-to-late July, the operating rates of local refineries gradually recovered, increasing the availability of petroleum coke for sale, which led to an increase in market circulation and a subsequent decline in petroleum coke prices. In July, the overall port inventory of imported petroleum coke decreased. Although there was a concentrated arrival of imported petroleum coke, downstream procurement sentiment remained positive, and the sales of petroleum coke were good.
On the demand side: In July, pre-baked anodes—the largest downstream consumer of petroleum coke—saw a month-on-month increase in their benchmark procurement prices in Shandong. Electrolytic aluminum production capacity remained stable, and carbon plants faced rigid demand for raw materials. However, as external petroleum coke prices in China rose in tandem, carbon production costs continued to come under pressure, prompting companies to adopt a primarily on-demand procurement strategy. Some manufacturers adjusted their ingredient ratios, increasing the proportion of low-priced domestic coke purchases while reducing their reliance on high-priced imported coke. Negative electrode materials entered their traditional peak season, with energy storage orders performing well. Meanwhile, demand for graphite electrodes and metallic silicon remained sluggish, with downstream buyers adopting a mainly on-demand procurement approach.
Market Forecast: In August, refinery operations will gradually resume, potentially boosting the supply of petroleum coke. Meanwhile, previously contracted imported coke shipments are steadily arriving at ports, leading to a continued buildup of inventories at northern ports. Additionally, in August, the benchmark purchase price for pre-baked anodes by electrolytic aluminum plants in Shandong Province has declined compared to the previous month. Downstream users in the fuel-grade sector remain strongly resistant to higher-priced supplies, resulting in limited growth in demand and significantly restricting upward price momentum. On the cost side, volatile international crude oil prices are intensifying the wait-and-see sentiment in the petroleum coke market. We expect that domestic refinery-produced petroleum coke may trend downward in August.
