MTBE Market Trend Shows Strong Fluctuations in China

February 13 news

According to the commodity market analysis system, from February 6 to 13, the price of MTBE increased from 4,903 CNY/ton to 5,043 CNY/ton, with a price increase of 2.86% during the period, a month-on-month increase of 5.66%, and a year-on-year decrease of 12.86%. The Chinese MTBE market experienced a fluctuating upward trend. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, there is a certain demand for inventory replenishment among end-users. Additionally, the supply of MTBE spot goods is relatively low, with some manufacturers mainly supplying export orders or previous contract users, resulting in a significant reduction in the circulation of spot goods. Therefore, manufacturers have a willingness to maintain prices while selling, especially in places like Shandong. As the Spring Festival approaches, it becomes difficult to find vehicles for cross-regional transportation, and freight costs rise. The inflow of MTBE from the northeast and other regions into Shandong is limited, leading manufacturers in Shandong and other areas to have a strong intention to maintain prices while selling, resulting in a noticeable increase in prices.

MTBE China Production Price Average Trend Chart:

Cost Perspective: Regarding crude oil, international oil prices have risen. The primary positive factor is market concerns that the situation between the U.S. and Iran could escalate once again, increasing potential supply risks and providing support for oil prices. As of February 11, the settlement price for the April Brent crude oil futures contract was reported at $69.40 per barrel.

Demand Side: On the downstream gasoline front, international crude oil futures have been fluctuating and trending upward. The gasoline market is supported by the Spring Festival travel rush, as increased passenger flows during the homecoming period boost retail sales at gas stations, prompting gas station operators to step up their purchasing activities. The demand for MTBE is also benefiting from favorable factors.

Supply side: There may be a shutdown plan for the Helci facility in Henan, China, which is expected to slightly reduce resource supply. The MTBE supply side is influenced by positive factors.

As of February 13, statistics on MTBE factory prices from selected production enterprises:

As of the close on February 12, the Asian MTBE market closed at a price that was $6.04 per ton lower than the previous trading day, with FOB Singapore quoted at $670.32–$672.32 per ton. The European MTBE market closed at a price that was $20 per ton lower than the previous trading day, with FOB ARA quoted at $762.24–$762.74 per ton. The U.S. MTBE market closed at a price that was $22.31 per ton lower than the previous trading day, with FOB Gulf offshore prices quoted at $706.87–$707.22 per ton ($199.59–$199.69 per gallon).

Future Market Prediction Raw material prices are fluctuating within a narrow range, with slight cost variations. Currently, export orders are quite active, providing some support to the market sentiment. MTBE analysts believe that the MTBE market is expected to show a stronger trend.