On August 19, 2026, the spot price of 2-ethylhexanol in China continued to rise, with major manufacturers raising their quotes. However, the differential indicators are sending a warning signal of a potential slowdown in the upward trend. Given the current high price levels within a one-year cycle, the room for further increases is limited, and there is a need to be cautious about the risk of a price correction.
I. Table of Mean Difference Changes
| Average Difference Type | Today's Value | Yesterday's Value | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-day Average Difference (D5) | 30 | 0 | + |
| 10-day Average Difference (D10) | 50 | 66.66 | - |
| 20-day Average Difference (D20) | 195 | 176.67 | + |
II. Signal State Determination
The current mean difference change direction combination is (+, -, +), which conforms to the characteristics of a stagnation warning (bearish) signal.
III. Conclusion on Trend Directions
The price trend is oscillating (with a bearish bias). Reason: The directions of the three average differences are not entirely consistent. The 5-day and 20-day average differences have increased compared to yesterday, but the 10-day average difference has decreased, which is a warning signal of stagnation. This indicates that the short-term upward momentum has weakened, and the price may enter a phase of oscillation and correction.
IV. Positional Spatial Reference
Isobutanol prices in China over a 1-year cycle are at a medium-high level (60%-80% range), which suggests limited upside potential. If there are no new factors driving further increases, the pressure for a price correction will gradually increase.
V. Chart Display
VI. Supplement to Market Dynamics
On August 19, Luxi Chemical Group Co., Ltd. quoted a price of 8,400 CNY per ton for isooctanol, an increase of 100 CNY per ton from the previous level. Shandong Lihua Yi Group Co., Ltd. quoted a factory price of 8,300 CNY per ton for isooctanol, up 200 CNY per ton from the previous level. The upward revision in manufacturers’ quotes is supporting a short-term rise in spot prices.
Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
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