September 16th, news:
This analysis is based on the latest publicly available toluene spot price data and uses the mean deviation method as its core analytical tool. Currently, the short-term trend of toluene exhibits a mildly bearish oscillatory pattern characterized by a moderate pullback. The price is at the high end of the recent three-month and 60-day cycles, as well as near the upper end of the one-year cycle. Consequently, the room for further price increases is relatively limited. The supply-demand dynamics, along with the trends in upstream crude oil and aromatic hydrocarbon futures, will continue to be the key factors influencing future market developments.
Data Explanation
The latest available data used for this analysis is up to September 15, 2026. It is recommended to refer to real-time data.
I. Table of Mean Difference Changes
| Average Difference Type | Value as of September 15, 2026 | Value as of September 14, 2026 | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-day Average Difference (D5) | -243.33 | -183.33 | - |
| 10-day Average Difference (D10) | 345.33 | 412.67 | - |
| 20-day Average Difference (D20) | 428.83 | 424.83 | + |
II. Signal Status Determination
The current average difference change combination is (－, －, ＋), which belongs to a mild correction (biased towards bearish, corrective nature) signal.
III. Conclusion on Trend Direction
The current trend in toluene prices is one of volatility. The reason: The three moving averages showed inconsistent directions of change compared to the previous day, failing to meet the criteria for a clear upward or downward trend and instead exhibiting characteristics of a mild pullback—a bearish signal typically seen in volatile markets.
IV. Positional Spatial Reference
Toluene prices are in the 5th tier (high) for both the 60-day and 3-month cycles, and in the 4th tier (moderately high) for the 1-year cycle, indicating limited potential for further increases.
V. One-Year Price Trend of Toluene
Six, Reference of the Industrial Chain in China
Upstream commodity: Naphtha
Downstream products: trimethylbenzene, chlorotrimethylsilane, methylcyclohexane, benzyl chloride, benzaldehyde, p-chlorotoluene, o-chlorotoluene, benzyl alcohol, m-cresol, p-cresol, chlorotoluene, TDI, PX, isomeric xylene
VII. Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
