August 21 news
Recent international crude oil futures have been rising consecutively, and gasoline prices at refineries in Northeast and Northwest China have also increased. The spread indicators show that gasoline is currently in a strong consolidation (bullish) state, with the 1-year price cycle at a mid-high level and the 60-day and 3-month cycles at high levels, indicating limited short-term upside potential.
I. Table of Mean Difference Changes
| Average Difference Type | Today's Value (2026-08-20) | Yesterday's Value (2026-08-19) | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-day Average Difference (D5) | 111.85 | 111.92 | - |
| 10-day Average Difference (D10) | 63.57 | 38.05 | + |
| 20-day Average Difference (D20) | 90.42 | 74.60 | + |
II. Signal State Determination
The current mean difference change direction combination is (－, ＋, ＋), which belongs to a strong consolidation (bullish) signal.
Three, Conclusions on Trend Directions in China
The price trend is oscillating (with a bias towards strong consolidation). Reason: The directions of the three average differences are not entirely consistent. Among them, the 10-day and 20-day average differences have increased compared to yesterday, while the 5-day average difference has slightly declined. Overall, it presents a strong consolidation pattern with a clear bias towards being bullish.
IV. Positional Spatial Reference
Gasoline prices are at a medium-to-high level over the one-year period and at a high level over the 60-day and three-month periods. According to the five-level positioning rules, being in the high-range indicates limited short-term upside potential, and caution is advised regarding the risk of a pullback.
Five, Trend Chart Display
Six, Industrial Chain and Macroeconomic Dynamics
International crude oil: Since August 17, international crude oil futures have risen consecutively. On August 19, the October contract for U.S. WTI crude oil was quoted at $84.39 per barrel (up 0.4%), while the October contract for Brent crude oil was quoted at $91.62 per barrel (up 0.7%). Cost-side support remains strong.
Chinese independent refineries: On August 20, the price range for 92# gasoline in the northeastern region was 8700-8800 CNY/ton, and for 95# gasoline it was 8800-8900 CNY/ton; in the northwestern region, the price range for 92# gasoline was 8800-8900 CNY/ton, and for 95# gasoline it was 8900-9000 CNY/ton, all of which have increased compared to the previous period.
Policy Update: On August 18, two departments released the "15th Five-Year Plan" for oil and gas, proposing that China's oil and gas supply reach 440 million tons of oil equivalent by 2030. The plan also includes research to improve the consumption tax system and pricing mechanism for refined oil products, with long-term impacts yet to be observed.
Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
