August 21st News
Driven by the continuous rise in international crude oil prices, diesel quotes from Chinese independent refineries continue to increase; the average difference indicator shows that the current diesel price is in a strong consolidation (bullish) fluctuation state. In the short term, the price is in a high range, with limited room for further increases, and it is expected to maintain a mid-to-high level in the medium term.
I. Table of Mean Difference Changes
| Average Difference Type | Today's Value (2026-08-20) | Yesterday's Value (2026-08-19) | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-day Average Difference (D5) | 117.67 | 118.69 | - |
| 10-day Average Difference (D10) | 59.04 | 31.42 | + |
| 20-day Average Difference (D20) | 117.72 | 101.24 | + |
II. Signal Status Determination
The current combination of mean difference change signs is (-, +, +), which constitutes a strong consolidation (bullish) signal.
Three, Conclusions on Trend Directions in China
The price trend is oscillating (with a bias towards strong consolidation). Reason: The directions of the three average differences are not entirely consistent; the 5-day average difference has slightly decreased from yesterday, while the 10-day and 20-day average differences have significantly increased, which fits the criteria for strong consolidation within an oscillating range. Additionally, with international crude oil prices rising for three consecutive trading days, providing favorable support, the diesel quote range for refineries in Northeast China has risen to 7,700-7,800 CNY/ton, and in Northwest China to 7,500-7,600 CNY/ton, indicating a stronger short-term price trend.
IV. Positional Spatial Reference
Diesel prices for 60-day and 3-month cycles are at high levels, with limited room for further increases; the 1-year cycle price is at a moderately high level, providing some support. Overall, the short-term upside is limited, while the medium-term trend is expected to remain strong and volatile.
Five, Price Trend Chart
Six, Dynamics of the Industrial Chain in China
Upstream: Crude oil prices have risen for several consecutive trading days. On August 19, the settlement price of the October contract for U.S. WTI crude oil futures was $84.39 per barrel, up 0.4%; the settlement price of the October contract for Brent crude oil futures was $91.62 per barrel, up 0.7%.
Downstream: The related product is methanol diesel. The current high price of diesel may provide some support to downstream costs in China.
Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
