August 26th, according to news,
I. Price Trends
According to the commodity market analysis system, as of August 26, the average price of premium DMF from Chinese enterprises was 5,060 CNY/ton. This week, DMF showed a trend of "stability at first, then an increase, with high prices holding steady over the weekend." The delivered price in East China reached 5,150-5,250 CNY/ton, while the bulk price in South China was 5,300-5,400 CNY/ton. In Shandong and North China, the price ranged from 5,000-5,100 CNY/ton, and Hualu Hengsheng's listed price for August remained stable at 5,500 CNY/ton.
II. Cause Analysis
Cost Perspective: In East China’s Taicang, methanol prices rose by approximately 4.94% week-on-week, while bulk methanol prices increased by 7.06% week-on-week (from 2,761 to 2,956 CNY/ton). Liquid ammonia prices climbed by 9.08% week-on-week, and dimethylamine prices fluctuated between 4,750 and 4,920 CNY/ton. Cost calculations show that Mysteel’s average cost for the week rose from 3,898 to 4,125 CNY/ton (up 5.82% week-on-week). For integrated coal-to-methanol plants using self-produced raw materials, the full cost ranges from 2,200 to 2,300 CNY/ton, with gross profit rebounding to 646 CNY/ton (up 17% week-on-week). However, externally sourced methanol and synthetic ammonia plants remain on the verge of slight losses.
Supply Side: Industry capacity utilization rate: 53.2% (week of Aug. 17) → 45.1% (week of Aug. 14–20) → approximately 48.3% (week of Aug. 23). Weekly production volume is about 18,600 tons (down 0.6% from the previous week). Maintenance activities: Guizhou Tianfu’s 100,000-ton facility experienced a 6-day shutdown due to a malfunction on Aug. 18; Hualu Hengsheng’s Jingzhou plant, with a capacity of 150,000 tons, began maintenance on Aug. 24 and will continue for 22 days, leading to further localized supply contraction going forward.
Market Demand: PU slurry prices in East China are ranging from 7,600 to 8,100 CNY/ton for wet-process products and from 8,000 to 8,500 CNY/ton for dry-process products. Slurry manufacturers are holding firm on prices to absorb the DMF price increase. Industry operating rates are around 55%, with buyers only stocking up based on immediate needs and no large-scale inventory buildup. At the end-user level, demand for footwear, apparel, and luggage remains weak domestically, while overseas exports are lower than in previous years; leather factories are purchasing DMF as needed. DMF for electronic-grade applications remains independently strong, and demand for DMF as a solvent in pharmaceuticals and acrylic fibers is rigid but relatively small in volume. Export orders to Southeast Asia remain stable, diverting only a small portion of China’s surplus supply.
3. Future Market Forecast
DMF analysts believe that in the short term (the next 1-2 weeks), prices are likely to remain stable rather than decline, with high-level fluctuations expected. The mainstream price range in East China is roughly between 4,800 and 5,200 CNY per ton. There’s insufficient momentum to break through the previous high. Key support levels include: ① Stronger methanol prices coupled with rising liquid ammonia prices, providing cost-based floor support; ② Manufacturers’ inventories remain manageable, and scheduled maintenance shutdowns continue; ③ Before the “Golden September” period, downstream demand is expected to stage a temporary restocking phase.
