June 12th, news:
According to the commodity market analysis system, from June 5 to 12, the BDO price in China fell from 8,083 CNY/ton to 7,966 CNY/ton, with a decline of 1.44% during the period, a month-on-month decrease of 5.39%, and a year-on-year decrease of 4.02%. Terminal demand was weak, with prices in many downstream industries falling, showing a lower acceptance of high raw material prices. In the short term, supply and demand pressures still exist, and inventory holders are mainly focused on selling, leading to a downward trend in the trading focus of the Chinese BDO market.
Supply Side: In terms of facilities, although the online auction was concluded at a high price of 7950 CNY/ton, it had limited effect on boosting market buying interest. The main reason is that there are restarts, capacity increases, and maintenance among the facilities, leading to an increase in the supply of goods. Meanwhile, the end-market is in the off-season for demand, causing inventory pressure in many downstream industries. To promote sales, production plants have resorted to negotiating lower prices for promotions. The BDO supply side is affected by negative factors.
Statistical Summary of Operating Conditions for Some Manufacturing Plants:
| Region | Plant Dynamics |
|---|---|
| Xinjiang Shuguang Lvhua | The 100,000-ton-per-year plant was shut down on June 9; the restart date is yet to be determined. |
| Xinjiang Meike | The Phase III plant has been shut down, while Phases I and IV are operating steadily. Phases II and V have been undergoing rotational maintenance since June 11, with the current schedule expected to last until June 29. |
| Inner Mongolia Sanwei | The 300,000-ton-per-year BDO plant is operating at 80% capacity; there are plans for further load reductions in the future. |
| Shaanxi Heimao | The 60,000-ton-per-year plant is operating steadily. |
| Xinjiang Xinye | The 60,000+70,000-ton plant is operating steadily; a 20-day maintenance shutdown is scheduled for June 9. The 70,000-ton plant underwent maintenance starting May 9 and will continue until the end of the major overhaul. |
| Inner Mongolia Dongjing Bio | Phase I is currently undergoing shutdown; Phase II will undergo maintenance for 50 days starting June 10. |
| Ningxia Wuheng Chemical | Phase I plant will undergo maintenance for 15 days starting June 10; Phase II plant is scheduled for maintenance and catalyst replacement for 15 days starting July 1. |
Cost Perspective: Regarding calcium carbide, China’s calcium carbide prices are generally trending downward. Currently, production enterprises are eager to ship their products, and some traders are flexibly adjusting their quoted prices in an effort to accelerate sales. As for methanol, prices continue to rise, and the market’s overall optimistic sentiment remains strong. Coupled with the current tight supply of regional sources, the market generally adopts a “buy on rises, not on falls” mentality. With calcium carbide prices declining and methanol prices rising, the impact on BDO costs is mixed—both positive and negative.
Demand Side: On the downstream side, operations in the PBT and PBAT industries have declined, leading to a reduction in overall demand absorption. In the short term, the BDO industry still has inventory awaiting digestion; suppliers are adopting a more cautious approach to shipments, prioritizing fulfillment of contracted orders. Spot transactions involving small, sporadic orders tend to be negotiated at lower prices, and the market’s trading focus continues to decline. The demand side for BDO is being weighed down by bearish factors.
Market Forecast: Raw material calcium carbide is experiencing low-level fluctuations, while methanol prices remain relatively strong, increasing cost pressure on BDO. Both supply and demand are on the rise. Overall, BDO analysts expect the Chinese BDO market to stabilize and trade within a narrow range.
