September 4th news
Recent increases in international crude oil prices have supported the cost of refined oil products, with diesel quotes from Chinese independent refineries rising for several consecutive days. Current signals indicate that diesel prices are in a strong consolidation phase (bullish), but prices are already at a high level for the nearly 1-year cycle, limiting further upside potential. It is recommended to monitor the trend in crude oil prices and changes in refinery operating rates.
The latest available data is up to September 3, 2026, and it is recommended to refer to real-time data.
1. Mean Difference Change Table
| Average Difference Type | Value as of September 3, 2026 (CNY/ton) | Value as of September 2, 2026 (CNY/ton) | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-day Average Difference (D5) | 231.54 | 313.66 | - |
| 10-day Average Difference (D10) | 182.58 | 127.88 | + |
| 20-day Average Difference (D20) | 230.79 | 229.57 | + |
2. Signal Status Judgment
The current mean difference change combination is (－, ＋, ＋), which belongs to a strong consolidation (bullish) signal.
3. Trend Direction Conclusion
The current price trend is oscillating with a bullish bias.
Reason: The changes in the three differences from the previous day are not entirely consistent, which does not meet the criteria for a clear upward or downward trend. This is considered to be within a fluctuation range. Based on the combination of signals, it is judged to be a strong consolidation with a bullish bias.
4. Position Space Reference
The current diesel price in China is at the 5th level (high) in the recent 1 year, 3 months, and 60-day cycles, with limited room for further increase.
5. Trend chart display
Fundamental reference
Cost Side: On September 2, international crude oil futures closed higher. The settlement price for the October contract of U.S. WTI crude oil futures was $91.01 per barrel, up 0.9%; the settlement price for the November contract of Brent crude oil futures was $95.63 per barrel, up 1.0%. The continued rise in crude oil prices is supporting higher costs for refined oil products.
Spot prices: On September 3, the price range for diesel from local refineries in the northeastern region of China was 8600-8700 CNY/ton, and in the northwestern region of China, it was 8300-8400 CNY/ton, showing a significant increase compared to the beginning of the month.
Market News: U.S. diesel prices have climbed to their highest level since early April, when tensions between the U.S. and Iran first escalated, highlighting growing inflationary pressures. The Ruwais refinery in Abu Dhabi has resumed full-capacity operations. Meanwhile, the U.S. announced plans to double Venezuela’s crude oil production over the next few years; ongoing developments on the supply side warrant continued attention.
Risk Warning: The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
