[Key Insight] On the supply side, several methanol plants in Inner Mongolia are scheduled to shut down for maintenance in early September. The anticipated contraction in supply is expected to provide support for prices. However, on September 3, auctions of methanol in major producing regions largely ended without any successful bids, and the spot price in Shandong region saw a slight decline. Coupled with the fact that current prices are at their highest level in nearly 60 days, methanol is likely to remain in a volatile, slightly bullish pattern in the short term, with diminishing momentum for further price increases.
1. Average Difference Change Table
| Mean Difference Indicator | Value as of September 3, 2026 (CNY/ton) | Value as of September 2, 2026 (CNY/ton) | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-day Mean Difference (D5) | 150.33 | 263.33 | - |
| 10-day Mean Difference (D10) | 146.34 | 97.42 | + |
| 20-day Mean Difference (D20) | 95.96 | 91.46 | + |
2. Signal Status Judgment
The current mean difference change combination is (-, +, +), which is a strong consolidation (biased towards bullish) signal.
3. Trend Direction Conclusion
The current methanol price trend is oscillating with a bullish bias. Reason: The changes in the three averages compared to the previous day are not entirely consistent, so the overall situation is in an oscillatory phase; among them, the short-term 5-day average difference has slightly declined, while the medium- and long-term 10-day and 20-day average differences continue to rise. This is a strong consolidation phase under an oscillatory pattern, with the overall direction being bullish.
4. Positional Spatial Reference
From the perspective of price range:
Methanol 60-day cycle price is in the 5th tier (high position), with limited room for further short-term increases;
Methanol prices in China over a one-year cycle are at the 4th level (moderately high), with room for a slight increase in the medium term, but overall there is not much flexibility.
5. Trend Chart Display
6. Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
(Source: China)
