Multiple factors push up where is the international natural gas price going

Since the beginning of this year, international natural gas prices have continued to rise, hitting multi-year or even historical highs in major markets such as Europe, Asia, and the United States. This has triggered discussions that "the era of cheap natural gas is over". Analysts believe that multiple factors such as extreme weather, energy policies, and economic recovery have exacerbated the imbalance between supply and demand in the global natural gas market, leading to skyrocketing natural gas prices. It is expected that this trend will continue for some time and will have an impact on global inflation and economic recovery.

On the 23rd, the price of natural gas futures traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange was maintained at 3.9 US dollars per million British thermal units. Although it has fallen from this month's high, it is still about double the same period last year. In Europe, the Dutch natural gas futures price, which is the indicator of natural gas prices in Western Europe, soared to a record high of 13.1 US dollars per million British thermal units in July, and continued to climb above US$15 in mid-August.

Bloomberg reported earlier this month that if compared with the May last year lows caused by the new crown epidemic, European natural gas prices have risen more than 10 times in less than a year and a half; Asian LNG prices have also risen nearly 6 times in the past year.

Market analysts believe that demand far exceeds supply, which is the main reason for the surge in international natural gas prices.

From the perspective of demand, the extreme high temperature weather in the United States, Europe and other places this summer has put tremendous pressure on power supply, and demand for natural gas has soared; the gradual recovery of the world economy has boosted energy import demand, and there has even been a phenomenon of competition between Asia and Europe for natural gas imports; More and more economies adjust their energy consumption structure to promote green energy demand, which also boosts the price of natural gas.

According to data released by the International Energy Agency, from 2009 to 2020, global natural gas consumption has increased by 30%. The "2021 Global Energy Review" report released by the agency in April predicts that global natural gas demand will increase by 3.2% year-on-year in 2021 due to factors such as the promotion of Asian and Middle Eastern markets.

From the perspective of supply, global natural gas production capacity has not been significantly expanded due to the surge in demand. On the one hand, the long-term insufficient investment in the natural gas sector has restricted the expansion of natural gas production capacity by enterprises. On the other hand, some exporters with potential for expansion are unwilling to increase supply for some reasons.

James Hekstoop, a natural gas analyst at Platts Energy Information Corporation, said that Russia is currently the only exporter with additional natural gas production capacity, but expanding exports to Europe means coordinating more natural gas transit issues with Ukraine. Russia is reluctant to increase supply due to political concerns.

Looking forward to the future trend, some market analysts believe that many price support factors still exist. This year, international natural gas prices are likely to rise but never fall. For example, natural gas inventories in Europe and other markets are significantly lower than in previous years, unable to make up for the supply gap in time; the pursuit of emission reduction targets in various countries will continue to provide long-term support for natural gas demand; after the extreme high temperature in summer, Europe and the United States will usher in the traditional peak of gas consumption in winter.

Market participants predict that international natural gas prices may set new records this winter. Once the price of natural gas bids farewell to the cheap era, it will bring higher production and living costs to natural gas consuming countries, consumers and enterprises, push up the level of inflation, and disrupt the acceleration of economic recovery.