India is accelerating efforts to complete its polycarbonate (PC) industry chain, a shift that will impact the export advantages long enjoyed by Chinese companies in both the Indian market and third-country markets.
On August 4, Deepak Chem Tech, a subsidiary of Indian chemical firm Deepak Nitrite, received approval to invest approximately ₹25 billion (about $262 million) to build a 240,000-tonne-per-year bisphenol A (BPA) production unit and supporting facilities in Gujarat.
Deepak Nitrite had already decided to use Trinseo technology to build India's first polycarbonate resin production unit, and has also planned phenol/acetone production units. With the BPA project now in place, the company will form a complete value chain from cumene, phenol/acetone, BPA to polycarbonate and downstream modified materials.
Reliance Industries is planning a 500,000-tonne-per-year BPA project at Jamnagar, expected to come on stream around 2030. Haldia Petrochemicals has also planned to invest about $1 billion to build a polycarbonate project.
India is attempting to replicate the development trajectory of Asia's petrochemical industry, gradually reducing its dependence on imported PC.
44,000 Tonnes of Exports to India Face Substitution
In 2025, China exported about 44,000 tonnes of PC to India, accounting for 8% of China's total PC exports, making India China's fourth-largest trading partner for PC.
Deepak Nitrite's PC plant is expected to start production between the end of 2027 and 2028. By that time, this 44,000-tonne export demand will be gradually replaced by local Indian capacity. China's PC export growth has already slowed from the earlier annual average of over 30% to single digits. Losing a top-five export market will have a direct and visible impact on orders for the companies involved.
Cost Advantage Gap Narrows
The core competitiveness of China's PC and BPA exports has been cost advantages driven by scale. However, once Deepak Nitrite's integrated project is completed—covering cumene, phenol/acetone, BPA, and PC—all within India, the freight, tariffs, and channel profits from intermediate links will be eliminated.
India has closer access to Middle Eastern propane and naphtha than China, resulting in lower feedstock transport costs. With a 240,000-tonne BPA plant supporting PC, plus Reliance's planned 500,000-tonne-scale facility, India's overall PC production cost will approach China's level.
Accumulating Tariff Risks
India has routinely imposed anti-dumping duties on Chinese chemical products in recent years. In the past, such tariffs did not stop Chinese PC exports because India had no domestic alternative capacity, and the duties were borne by Indian downstream customers.
Once local Indian capacity comes online, the incentive to protect domestic industry will only grow stronger. At that point, imposing high tariffs on Chinese PC will lose its last restraint—tariffs will not affect Indian domestic supply but will simply shut Chinese products out. With an additional anti-dumping duty of 20% or more on top of normal tariffs, Chinese PC will essentially be unable to enter the Indian market.
Overseas Markets Will Face Indian Competition
Reliance Industries' 500,000-tonne BPA capacity far exceeds its own PC integration needs. The surplus can be exported as BPA or further processed into PC for export.
Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and East Africa are traditional destinations for Chinese PC and BPA exports. Once India achieves large-scale supply, combined with feedstock cost advantages and port convenience, it will be well-positioned to compete head-on with Chinese companies in these markets.
Indian Capacity to Come Online Around 2028
The construction cycle for Deepak Nitrite's BPA and PC plants is about 3 to 4 years, with capacity expected to be released between the end of 2027 and 2028. Reliance's 500,000-tonne project is expected to start production around 2030.
During this period, the Indian market will still need imports to fill the gap, leaving room for Chinese exports to India. After 2028, however, first the Indian domestic market will be substituted, and then Indian products will directly compete with Chinese products in third-country markets.
