September 20th report:
[Key Takeaway] MTBE is likely to trade in a volatile range in the short term, currently at a multi‑cycle high with limited upside. Supported by cost factors, any downward pressure on prices remains relatively contained.
The latest available data is up to September 19, 2026, and it is recommended to refer to real-time data.
1. Average Difference Variation Table
| Average Difference Type | Today’s Value (CNY/ton) | Yesterday’s Value (CNY/ton) | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day Average Difference | -12.50 | -12.50 | Unchanged |
| 10-Day Average Difference | -33.81 | 3.63 | - |
| 20-Day Average Difference | 274.51 | 270.29 | + |
2. Signal Status Determination
The current three mean differences do not completely align in their direction of change, indicating no clear unilateral signal, and thus belong to a neutral range with a tendency towards fluctuation.
3. Trend Direction Conclusion
The current trend is oscillating, as the changes in the three averages compared to the previous day are not entirely in the same direction, failing to meet the criteria for a clear uptrend or downtrend. Fundamentally, the external market MTBE trends are diverging. In China's Shandong region, manufacturers' quotations have recently undergone minor adjustments. The high price of upstream methanol supports costs, while downstream gasoline blending demand has not significantly increased. Under the supply and demand tug-of-war, the short-term trend will mainly be oscillatory.
4. Positional Space Reference
MTBE 60-day, 3-month, and 1-year cycle prices are all in the 5th tier (high position) out of 5 tiers. The short-term upside is limited, and there is a need to be cautious of the risk of a pullback from the high position.
5. Trend Chart Display
6. Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
