September 23 report:
The current spot price of gasoline is in the high range of the nearly 1-year cycle. Based on the mean difference method, the recent market trend shows a weak rebound with a bearish fluctuation pattern. Coupled with the continuous decline in international crude oil prices and overseas fuel tax reduction policies, the room for further increases in gasoline prices is limited. The data in this report is as of September 22, 2026, and is for market reference only.
[Data Note] The most recent data available as of September 22, 2026; please refer to real-time data for the latest information.
I. Table of Finite Differences
| Difference Type | Value on September 22, 2026 | Value on September 21, 2026 | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day Difference | -38.29 | -60.57 | + |
| 10-Day Difference | -66.14 | -51.14 | - |
| 20-Day Difference | 144.74 | 179.57 | - |
II. Signal State Determination
The current mean difference change symbol combination is (+, -, -), which belongs to a weak rebound (bearish) signal.
III. Conclusions on Trend Directions
The current trend in gasoline prices is volatile. Reason: The changes in the three averages compared to the previous day do not all point in the same direction, which does not meet the criteria for a clear upward or downward trend. This characteristic aligns with a volatile market, and the signals indicate a bearish tendency.
IV. Positional Space Reference
Gasoline prices for the 60-day, 3-month, and 1-year cycles are all in the fifth tier (high range), leaving limited room for further increases.
Five, 1-year trend chart display
Six, Market Reference Information
Cost side: Since September, international crude oil prices have been on a steady downward trend. On September 21, the settlement price for the November WTI crude oil futures contract stood at $92.37 per barrel, down 3.9%; the December Brent crude oil futures contract settled at $103.87 per barrel, down 3.1%, further weakening cost support for gasoline.
Chinese domestic spot market: On September 22, the regional trends for Chinese refined oil products were mixed. In the northeastern region, diesel prices increased by 200 CNY/ton to 9100-9200 CNY/ton, while gasoline prices remained stable. In the northwestern region, refined oil product prices were generally unchanged, with 92# gasoline quoted at 10200-10300 CNY/ton.
Overseas: Germany has announced a three-month fuel tax cut starting in October, reducing taxes by approximately 17 euro cents per liter for both gasoline and diesel. Meanwhile, in France, 11% of gas stations are currently experiencing fuel shortages. Volatility in the international refined‑product market is having a measurable spillover effect on sentiment in the Chinese market.
Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
