August 5th news
I. Price Trends
According to the data monitoring system, on August 5th, the market price of cyclohexanone in Shandong region of China was 8,500 CNY/ton. Compared to August 1st (when the reference price of cyclohexanone was 8,800 CNY/ton), the price decreased by 300 CNY/ton, a decrease of 3.41%.
In early August (August 1-5), the cyclohexanone market in Shandong, China showed a weak downward trend, with the market focus in Shandong declining from its high point and negotiation prices moving towards lower levels. By August 5, the cyclohexanone prices in Shandong were around 8,450 to 8,550 CNY per ton.
2. Analysis of Core Influencing Factors
Supply-side Under Pressure: Currently, the overall operation of cyclohexanone equipment in China is normal, and the spot market for cyclohexanone is relatively loose. Downstream transmission is average, and some major factories are facing certain supply pressures. Traders are increasingly looking to reduce inventory, and some have proactively lowered their quotes. Overall, the support from the supply side for the cyclohexanone market has become less firm.
Downstream demand remains weak: Recently, after completing the phased restocking at the downstream end of cyclohexanone, market demand has generally maintained a rigid procurement stance. Demand has been relatively subdued, providing only moderate support for cyclohexanone prices.
Raw material costs decline: In August, the market trend for pure benzene, the upstream cost component of cyclohexanone, has weakened, leading to a decrease in cost support for cyclohexanone. As a result, the price of cyclohexanone is following the downward trend of raw materials.
III. Future Market Forecast
Currently, the cyclohexanone market in Shandong is experiencing a light trading atmosphere with loose effective support. It is expected that in the short term, the cyclohexanone market in Shandong will mainly undergo a weak consolidation. More attention should be paid to changes in supply and demand as well as cost factors.
From a technical perspective
From the spot market analysis system, it can be seen that starting from August 3rd, the 10-day moving average of cyclohexanone began to cross below the 20-day moving average, and the upward difference has been expanding, indicating a downward trend in line with the forecast. The auxiliary indicators show that the price of cyclohexanone is at a mid-high level within the 5-tier position (annual position). Combining these two indicators, it is predicted that the market price of cyclohexanone in China will mainly follow a weak downward trend. It is also necessary to closely monitor the fluctuations in crude oil prices, the operation of facilities, and changes in downstream orders.
