September 28 report:
According to the SpotCom AI assistant, this issue of the 180CST fuel oil market daily report is compiled based on the latest publicly available spot quotes, average difference indicators, and cyclical position data. The current fuel oil price is at a high point in its 1-year cycle, showing a weak rebound with short-term volatility and a bearish trend. Fluctuations in the cost of upstream crude oil and shale oil, as well as changes in the demand for downstream diesel and gasoline, are the key variables affecting future trends.
Note: The most recent data available as of September 27, 2026, is provided; real-time data is recommended.
I. Recent Spot Price Quotes
In the past week, the ex-factory price range for low-sulfur 180cst fuel oil in China has remained at 7400-8000 CNY/ton. On September 23, the ex-factory price for low-sulfur 180cst fuel oil in Shanghai by China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) was 7400 CNY/ton, a decrease of 100 CNY/ton from the previous trading day. The price remained stable on September 24.
II. Analysis of the Mean Difference Indicator
1. Average difference change table
| Difference Type | Value on September 27, 2026 | Value on September 26, 2026 | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day Difference (D5) | 0.00 | -5.00 | + |
| 10-Day Difference (D10) | 3.75 | 13.75 | - |
| 20-Day Difference (D20) | 231.87 | 275.00 | - |
2. Signal status determination
The current combination of the three differences compared to the previous day is (+, -, -), which matches the characteristics of a weak rebound (bearish) signal in China.
3. Trend Direction Conclusion
The current fuel oil price trend is judged to be fluctuating. Reason: The direction of change in the three averages compared to the previous day is not entirely consistent, which does not meet the criteria for a clear upward or downward trend. Therefore, there is no clear unilateral trend in the short term, and the overall trend is slightly bearish.
III. Positional Space Reference
Fuel oil 1-year cycle price is in the 5th tier (high, within the highest 20% range of the cycle), with limited upside potential.
IV. 1-Year Price Trend Chart
Five, Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
