[ethylene glycol] : Coal fell rapidly, ethylene glycol followed

China glycol price trend

Starting in September and glycol into the uplink channel, from 5105 CNY/ton in just a month and a half, rose to the highest 7367 CNY/ton, the years have risen by as much as 44.31%, really not the kui is a "golden nine silver ten", not happy for a few days, a month and a half of the rally, with only a week fell down, the main reason to because coal quickly pull up and down.

Since September, the national policy began to affect domestic industrial production, the polyester industry is no exception, the mainstream polyester factories have reduced production, maintenance to reduce energy consumption, from 92.38% to the lowest 76.75%, down 15.63%. Although the policy has been slightly eased recently and the demand has recovered slightly, it is still far from that in previous years. Therefore, for the current market, the demand for ethylene glycol from downstream polyester remains at a low level, which does not support the sharp rise in the price of ethylene glycol.

In September, international crude oil rose steadily, coal prices rose rapidly, cost pressure glycol passively followed, still not urgent raw material increase, the integrated device is ok, turned losses into profits; And coal equipment, in the loss of the road farther and farther, but coal enterprises have to stop or reduce the load to avoid risk, coal started to the lowest load came to 28%. So far, the maintenance capacity in October is expected to be 7.262 million tons, the maintenance loss is expected to be 42.36 million tons, and the coal maintenance capacity is 5.05 million tons, accounting for 69.54%.

Coal prices at the same time, make the whole cheers and caper, coal chemical sector market since October 20, the National Development and Reform Commission hair 28, pushing coal return to rational price, and price controls, market sentiment to react quickly, make thermal coal prices in futures on the continuous drop stop, in a week as the spot market, although smaller falls, but weaker in anticipation, The glycol market experienced a "flash in the pan" in a week. The negotiated price fell by 1028 CNY/ton, or -15.22% on a sequential basis.

To sum up: compared with previous years, the demand has decreased but not increased, so raw ethylene glycol is not supported to increase; Port inventory to maintain low, tired of the inflection point is not yet, glycol up a vote; A good, will not let glycol in a short period of less than two months up nearly 2300 CNY/ton, the final root is the cost end pull, raw material coal price is glycol out of the rise and fall of the leading factor.