PTA Price Drop Brings Opportunities for Polyester Factories!

Since November, as the raw material PTA has ceased to rise, and the futures market has fallen sharply, and cost support has weakened, the polyester product market has begun to pull back from a high level. After entering December, crude oil once again collapsed due to a mutant virus, and the spot market continued for days. From the current point of view, most varieties of the chemical fiber industry chain have fallen back to the price trend before the price increase.

Following the slump of the PTA market, the profit of the PTA production of the former banknote printing machine was greatly squeezed. In the first half of the year, due to the huge social inventory pressure and the impact of the concentrated production of new devices, the PTA processing fee reached the bottom, and the low point dropped to 300 yuan/ At this time, the price of acetic acid has risen sharply. Under the pressure of corporate losses, the phenomenon of equipment maintenance and parking has increased, the supply and demand of PTA has expanded, and a large number of warehouse receipts have flowed out.

In the second half of the year, although the PTA social inventory pressure has eased and the PTA processing fee has been moderately repaired, the dual-control effect and weak demand have caused the polyester load to hit a low point in the year. PTA has returned to the inventory rhythm again in September. Terminal dragged down, supply and demand doubled, PTA in December continued the pattern of accumulation since September, coupled with the poor macro atmosphere, lower risk appetite, and market price focus may shift downward.

In this context, the PTA processing fee has been compressed, and the average PTA processing fee from January to November was only 493 CNY/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 18%.

The cost of PTA collapsed, the polyester product market began to panic price cuts and shipments, low prices in the market emerged one after another, and the focus of the market continued to decline. In the past two days, polyester yarns still have substantial discounts and promotions, with a maximum promotion of 400 CNY/ton! At present, the price of polyester filament POY150D is 7250 CNY/ton, the price of polyester filament FDY 150D has dropped to 7450 CNY/ton, and the price of polyester filament DTY 150D has dropped to 8880 CNY/ton. Some varieties that have fallen sharply have reached 3,000 CNY/ton.

Nowadays, the upstream cost support of polyester yarns is no longer supported. Under the situation of high uncertainty in the trend, the downstream pessimism and cautious attitudes coexist. Moreover, the sales promotion a few days ago has already made up a warehouse, and the improvement in production and sales this time is limited. It is expected that the price of polyester filaments will continue to decline in the short term.

The polyester factory replaced the PTA factory as the new money printing machine.

Although polyester filaments have shown a volatile downward trend since November, due to the simultaneous downward adjustment of raw material prices, the cash flow of polyester filaments has not fluctuated much. In November, the average polymerization cost was 5,954 CNY/ton, a decrease of 11.6% from the previous month. As shown in the figure below, the cash flow of the three main types of polyester filament fluctuated downwards in the first half of the month, and profits were compressed. 

On the whole, the average cash flow of POY mainstream models is 653.9 CNY/ton, the average cash flow of FDY mainstream models is 443.67 CNY/ton, and the average cash flow of DTY mainstream models is 559.09 CNY/ton, both showing a slight decrease from the previous month, but the current profit level is close to 5. High level over the years.

Especially since the outbreak of the epidemic in 2020, the cash flow of polyester filaments has continued to be compressed. For most of the year, the cash flow of polyester filaments has been near the break-even point. Since 2021, the cash flow of polyester filaments has been continuously restored. In March and October, the cash flow of polyester filaments The flow broke the "thousand" twice. Looking at the whole year, the polyester factory has replaced the PTA factory as the new banknote printing machine.