August 19th, news
Recent fluctuations in the international crude oil market have been on an upward trend, with WTI and Brent crude rising by 2.5% and 2.6% respectively on August 17, driving up diesel prices at refineries in northeastern and northwestern China. Diesel is currently at a high point in the 60-day and 3-month cycles, and at a mid-high point in the 1-year cycle. Indicators show a warning of a potential price stagnation (bearish). Additionally, the "15th Five-Year" oil and gas plan mentions improving the pricing mechanism for refined oil products. Going forward, attention should be paid to the trends in crude oil, changes in supply and demand, and the implementation of policies.
I. Analysis of the Mean Difference Indicator
| Average Difference Type | Today's Value (2026-08-18) | Yesterday's Value (2026-08-17) | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-day Average Difference (D5) | 84.94 | 17.70 | + |
| 10-day Average Difference (D10) | 16.80 | 17.03 | - |
| 20-day Average Difference (D20) | 80.91 | 70.69 | + |
II. Positional Spatial Reference
Diesel prices are at:
60-day cycle: High level, limited upside potential
3-month cycle: High level, limited upside potential
1 year cycle: medium to high, the fluctuation range needs to be judged in combination with supply and demand as well as crude oil trends.
III. Market Trends and Developments
International crude oil trends: On August 17, the settlement price for the September contract of U.S. WTI crude oil futures was $84.50 per barrel, up $2.10, or 2.5%. The settlement price for the October contract of Brent crude oil futures was $90.87 per barrel, up $2.35, or 2.6%. Earlier, on August 13, international crude oil had closed lower, with WTI falling 2.4% to $81.25 per barrel and Brent dropping 2.2% to $87.07 per barrel.
Chinese independent refiner prices: On August 18, the price range for diesel in the northeastern region of China was 7600-7700 CNY/ton, and in the northwestern region, it was 7400-7500 CNY/ton, showing an increase compared to previous prices. On August 14, China's retail price cap for refined oil products was lowered, with diesel prices reduced by 220 CNY per ton, equivalent to a decrease of 0.19 yuan per liter for 0# diesel.
Policy and International Developments: Two government departments have released the “15th Five-Year” oil and gas plan, setting a target of 440 million tons of oil equivalent for China’s oil and gas supply by 2030. They are also studying ways to refine the refined oil consumption tax system and pricing mechanism. In Canada, gasoline prices rose 25.7% year-on-year in July; in the U.S., diesel prices reached $5.40 per gallon during the second week of August, hitting a new high for the same period in previous years. Iran stated that the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, underscoring the need to closely monitor the geopolitical situation and its impact on crude oil supplies.
Four、Upstream and Downstream of the Industrial Chain
Upstream: Fuel oil, crude oil
Downstream: methanol diesel
Five, Display of Trend Chart
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
