PVC Prices Continue to Tise After The Spring Festival

PVC price trend chart of China

As of February 6, post-Holiday social inventory is preliminarily estimated at 301,600 tons, 27.36% more than before the holiday and 78.57% more than last year. Among them, the social inventory in East China was 221,600 tons, up 18.63% from the previous month and 69.03% from the previous year. (The social inventory in lunar calendar increased by 74.34% year on year, and 66.62% year on year in East China). Social inventory in line with the expected trend, or the next week or so is still an upward trend.

From the perspective of supply, the Winter Olympics has little impact on the start up of PVC production enterprises. The start up utilization rate of domestic calcium carbide enterprises continues to improve. According to lonzhong Information statistics, this week the start up of PVC production enterprises decreased by 0.52% month-on-month to 77.90%, and decreased by 7.99% year-on-year. Calcium carbide method increased by 0.79% to 81.49% from the previous month, and external calcium carbide mining enterprises started to increase, down 5.68% year on year; The ethylene method decreased 5.41% from the previous month to 65.45%, and 17.44% from the previous year. The supply side continues to increase, there is a certain negative pressure on the spot market.

From the perspective of PVC raw materials and demand, the domestic calcium carbide market continues a weak downward trend after the holiday, calcium carbide downstream vehicles to be unloaded continue to be high, and the purchase price decreases. The impact of rain and snow weather on transportation in northwest China has been alleviated, and vehicles on the way have arrived one after another. It is expected that the short-term receiving price or Yin drop trend, calcium carbide production enterprises start stable, positive shipment. PVC terminal manufacturers continue to start work in the downturn, east and south China are gradually recovering, but the overall start level is still in the off-season state, north China, central China and other regions downstream restart slowly, the overall demand may enter the normal level at the end of February.

In short, after the holiday, the domestic PVC market continues to be on the high side of the pattern, futures disk in advance into a state of pull up, but the basic spot liquidity is poor, but it is certain that the industry is still optimistic about the market PVC market, specific market trends need to pay more attention to the downstream industry resume work and social inventory tired trend. Not affected by macro and other factors, it is expected that the short-term domestic PVC market will continue to consolidate the pattern of high.