Commodities Fluctuated Significantly, Energy and Chemical Varieties Led the Rise

On February 22, the transaction prices of the main contracts of energy, chemical and agricultural products in the domestic futures market rose significantly.

Among them, the main fuel contract rose by 7.10% as of 15:00 that day, and closed at 3,364 CNY/ton in the afternoon, again approaching the previous high of 3,377 CNY/ton on February 7.

In addition, 12 major domestic futures contracts, including asphalt, crude oil, palm, soybean, soybean meal and styrene, rose by more than 2%.

Among the 15 varieties with a single-day increase of more than 1% in the main contract, there are 8 energy and chemical varieties, 5 agricultural products and 2 metal varieties.

In the domestic spot market, according to the data released by the business agency website, on February 21, there were 59 kinds of commodities that increased month-on-month in the list of commodity prices, including 17 kinds in the chemical industry and 11 kinds in the steel industry.

Commodities that rose more than 5% were mainly concentrated in the energy sector. The top three commodities that rose were liquefied natural gas, hydrochloric acid, and light soda ash.

Recently, the global financial and commodity markets have fluctuated significantly. As of the close on the 21st local time, the Russian RTS index fell by more than 13% in a single day, and the intraday drop was once more than 17%.

As of 24:00 ET on the 21st, among the main futures contracts in the outer disk, the main natural gas contract on the New York Stock Exchange rose 7% in a single day, and once rose more than 9% during the session; the main RBOB gasoline rose 2.92%; Brent crude oil futures reported intraday The high of $97.66 per barrel was the first time since September 2014.

New York gold futures stood at the $1,900/oz mark; the main U.S. soybean oil contract on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange stood at 68 cents/lb; the main U.S. corn contract stood at 666 cents/bushel, a new high since August 2021.

In the European market, aluminum futures on the London Metal Exchange stood at $3,300 per ton.

Fan Ruoying, a researcher at the Bank of China, believes that there is a high probability that commodity prices will show a divergent trend in the future. In 2022, the influencing factors facing the commodity market will be more complex and diverse.

On the whole, considering factors such as the slowdown in the global economic recovery and the gradual repair of the global supply chain, it is unlikely that commodities will rise sharply again.

In terms of varieties, first, the prices of key energy sources such as crude oil are expected to continue to rise; second, the prices of some non-ferrous metals such as copper and nickel may break new highs.

This is mainly due to the large new demand for related metals derived from the green transformation of the economy, and superimposed inventories continue to rise. It is at a historically low level; third, under the influence of the policy of guaranteeing supply and stabilizing prices, the prices of domestically priced commodities such as coal and steel are expected to fall back from high levels.

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