When will the price of coal rebound in port?

After the Mid-Autumn Festival, the inquiry enthusiasm of the power coal market in northern ports is poor, and the turnover volume is scarce. In addition, due to the operation conditions limited by gale weather, the port outflow volume has decreased significantly. However, under the sustained support of high cost in the upstream and high daily consumption in the downstream, the coal price in the port is still in a tepid and inflexible state. However, due to the influence of the end-user's advance reserve, the current coal price in the production area has shown signs of rising, and when will the rebound of coal price in the port wait?

Today think tank believes that due to the current favorable factors, the coal price in the port is expected to usher in a sustained upward trend at the end of this month or early October.

Firstly, the coal supply capacity of the main producing areas will be further tightened. Yesterday, the National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that in August, the country's raw coal output was 316.02 million tons, a decrease of 6.21 million tons annually, or 1.93%. In August, the average daily output of raw coal in China was 10.19 million tons, which was 200,000 tons less than last month. Today think tanks believe that the national raw coal production slowed down in August, mainly due to the approaching 70th anniversary of the Daqing, coal mine security situation continued to strengthen, affected by this, it is expected that the national raw coal output will also decline slightly in September, which is bound to form a good support for the follow-up port market.

Secondly, the Da-Qin Line began a 25-day overhaul in autumn, which lasted from September 15 to October 9. Today's think tank observes that the repair time of Daqin Line is ahead of previous years, and it happens to the key time node of downstream opening of winter storage and repair depot. Especially, some downstream end users of cement chemical industry will resume production in early October. Small and medium-sized users are bound to make up depot ahead of schedule, and the number of anchorage vessels in port market is expected at that time. Volume will surge and coal prices are expected to rise.

Thirdly, the current port and power plant inventory continued to digest downward, power plant inventory fell to the lowest value in nearly April. In recent years, the daily consumption of the six power plants has been maintained at about 700,000 tons due to the continuous high temperature weather in the south. As of yesterday, the overall inventory of coastal power plants has fallen to about 1570, close to the same period last year. According to the forecast of the Central Meteorological Observatory, there are still high temperature weather over 35 degrees Celsius in the follow-up areas of South China and South China. Daily consumption or maintenance of the current high level operation is expected to further downward consumption of power plant inventory.

According to the summary, today's think tank believes that under the influence of the above favorable factors, the port power coal market will gradually come out of the stalemate and shocks at the end of this month or the beginning of October, ushering in the first round of increase before the winter storage and replenishment.