Can 11 coal giants jointly propose to ensure stable supply

At present, the domestic power coal market as a whole is still in a state of stable supply and insufficient demand. After two coal mine accidents in Shanxi and Shandong, the market price is expected to increase, and some traders are reluctant to sell their prices. However, in view of the high inventory and weak demand in the downstream, the actual transaction is limited, and the short-term coal price is still mainly stable. In the later stage, we need to wait and see the supply of safe production areas at the end of the year and the next month's big gathering Signature of the head of the delegation. In addition, according to the economic reference, the price negotiation of electric coal in 2020 will enter a critical period near the end of the year. It is more than a week before the opening of the 2020 winter national coal trade fair on December 4. On November 25, 11 Chinese coal giants, such as State Energy Investment Group Co., Ltd., made a joint "voice" to propose to ensure supply and price stability. Industry insiders believe that the current coal supply and demand are generally loose, but the northeast, southwest, two lakes and one river and other regions are in the peak period of coal consumption or tense situation. In terms of the latest market, the port market was relatively calm on the 25th, basically continuing the market trend of last weekend, and the inquiry and trading were mostly concentrated in medium and low-grade coal. (cv5500) main closing price is about 550 yuan, and (cv5000) main closing price is about 490 yuan.

According to the analysis of China coal resources network, from the perspective of the current port inventory structure, the inventory is mostly concentrated in the hands of large customers, the market coal volume is not much, and the demand heat is not high, which results in poor liquidity of the market coal. Some market participants said that near the end of the year, the coal mine safety inspection had restrictions on the increase of production. In addition, the downstream high inventory was temporarily dominated by digestion of inventory, and there was no incremental demand expectation. The short-term market may enter a stable and narrow fluctuation trend. On November 25, the price of CCI power coal in the latest phase of China coal resources network showed that the price of cci5500 power coal was 549 CNY/ton, running steadily for five consecutive periods, 21 CNY/ton or 3.7% lower than that of the same period last month; the price of cci5000 power coal was 488 CNY/ton, 1 CNY/ton higher than that of the previous period, 11 CNY/ton or 2.2% lower than that of the same period last month. From the perspective of the downstream, from October to now, the daily consumption of the power plant has been increasing by 80000-100000 tons year on year, and the situation is optimistic. Since the beginning of winter, the operation of hydropower has weakened, the pressure of thermal power has increased, and the daily consumption of power plants continues to maintain a small increase compared with the same period last year. Analysts believe that with the coming of cold winter, it is expected that the daily consumption of coastal power plants will rise to a high level of 680000-700000 tons at the end of this month and the beginning of next month.

As of November 25, the inventory of six coastal power plants was 16.992 million tons, with a weekly to environmental ratio increase of 136000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 599000 tons; the daily coal consumption was 634000 tons, with a weekly to environmental ratio increase of 43000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.6 tons; the available days were 26.8 days, with a weekly to environmental ratio decrease of 1.7 days, a year-on-year decrease of 5.9 days. At present, the coastal coal market is in a stage of slow improvement. Since the implementation of the measures to restrict the import of coal in mid November, some customs have banned customs declaration in other places, and some ports have stopped receiving and unloading imported coal. Recently, the mood of domestic coal producers and traders has stabilized, the phenomenon of goods rejection has decreased, and there is a strong sense of price support. Some low sulfur medium truck coals even offer 2-5 CNY/ton in accordance with the index rise. However, due to the high inventory in the downstream, the user's counter-offer is low, Volume is limited. Ordos coal network analysis that the cold winter, the port market coal prices will appear a small rebound. It is expected that the low sulfur montmorillonite will take the lead in the rise, which will drive the market to be optimistic and the transportation to be tight; however, due to the influence of policy regulation, high power plant inventory and other factors, the rise of coal price is limited. From the perspective of producing area, the coal price in Yulin, Shaanxi Province has increased by 5-10 yuan. Due to the slightly increased demand of downstream chemical enterprises, the delivery of coal mines has improved, and the price has increased slightly. The miner's expectation for the future market is good, but the increase is limited. In Ordos area, Inner Mongolia, the coal price is in a weak position. Affected by the improvement of the port market, the demand of some platforms is improved, and the coal mine inventory is reduced. The price trend in the later period will wait and see whether the coal mine accident will affect the output and whether the port market will continue to rise. The coal price in northern Shanxi Province is relatively stable as a whole, with a slight decrease of 3-5 yuan for individual mines, a decrease in direct railway coal shipment, and a normal demand for water coal in the port. Due to the lack of support at the demand end, most of the miners think that it is difficult to increase the price in the later period.