National coal economic operation in the first 10 months

In the first 10 months of 2019, the operation of coal economy in China is generally stable. Since October, the market demand has slowed down, the supply of domestic coal market has shifted to a loose direction, the overall coal storage level of the whole society is at a high level, the coal market is weak and downward, and the price is stable.

Consumption increased slightly. Preliminary calculation shows that in the first 10 months, the national coal consumption is about 3.247 billion tons, an increase of 0.8% year-on-year, including 1.713 billion tons of coal consumption in the power industry, 1.0% year-on-year growth; 536 million tons of coal consumption in the steel industry, 4.3% year-on-year growth; 425 million tons of coal consumption in the building materials industry, 2.7% year-on-year growth; 238 million tons of coal consumption in the chemical industry, 1.5% year-on-year growth; coal consumption in other industries continues to decrease.

Increase in supply. First, domestic production has increased. From January to October, the output of raw coal above Designated Size in China was 3.063 billion tons, up 4.5% year on year. In October, the output of raw coal above Designated Size in China was 325 million tons, up 4.4% year-on-year, and the growth rate was the same as that of last month; the average daily output was 10.48 million tons, down 320000 tons month on month. Second, import growth. In the first 10 months, China imported 276 million tons of coal, a year-on-year increase of 24.204 million tons, an increase of 9.6%; exported 4.557 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 622000 tons, an increase of 15.8%; net imported 271 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 23.582 million tons, an increase of 9.5%. In October, China imported 25.685 million tons of coal, up 11.29% year on year, down 15.20% month on month. The third is the increase of railway traffic. In the first 10 months, China's railways sent 2.03 billion tons of coal, an increase of 63.17 million tons on a year-on-year basis, an increase of 3.2% (including 215 million tons sent in October, an increase of 14.12 million tons on a year-on-year basis, an increase of 7%). The inventory of the whole society is at a high level. According to express statistics, by the end of October, the inventory of key coal enterprises was 64 million tons, an increase of 6.5 million tons on a month on month basis, an increase of 11.3%; 9 million tons on a year-on-year basis, an increase of 16.4%; and 9.81 million tons on a year-on-year basis, an increase of 18%. The coal storage capacity of the national unified dispatching power plant is 144.45 million tons, which is at a historical high level, with an increase of 10.28 million tons on a month on month basis, an increase of 7.7%; a year-on-year increase of 10.53 million tons, an increase of 7.9%; the coal storage capacity is available for 30 days, which is at a high level; the coal storage capacity of the main ports around Bohai Sea is 26.19 million tons, an increase of 2.72 million tons on a month on month basis.

The price is in a reasonable range, and has declined steadily since the beginning of the year. First, the contract price in the medium and long term has been stable and declined. The middle and long-term contract price of power coal (5500 kcal of water coal) has always been stable in the green range. The average price from January to November was 556.2 CNY/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 2.6 CNY/ton, of which the price in October was 553 CNY/ton, a month on month decrease of 1 CNY/ton. Second, the market price fell month on month. Since this year, the average market price of 5500 kcal coal has been 599.7 CNY/ton, down 59.8 CNY/ton year on year, 53.6 CNY/ton year on year. As of November 25, the market coal price was 549 CNY/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 87 CNY/ton and a month on month decrease of 21 CNY/ton. Third, the price of coking coal has declined. On November 25, the comprehensive price of Shanxi Coking fertilizer refined coal was 1360 CNY/ton, down 20 CNY/ton month on month, down 170 CNY/ton year on year.

Fixed asset investment growth. In the first 10 months, fixed asset investment in coal mining and beneficiation industry increased by 26.9% year on year, among which private investment increased by 32.8%. The business situation of the enterprise continued to improve. In the first nine months, the operating revenue of Coal Enterprises above Designated Size in China was 1.83 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.9% year-on-year; the net amount of notes receivable and accounts receivable was 364.17 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.3% year-on-year; the asset liability ratio was 64.7% (70.7% of large coal enterprises), a decrease of 1.1 percentage point year-on-year; the total profit was 216.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.2% year-on-year, a decrease of 2.1 percentage points higher than that of Enterprises above Designated Size in China. The total profits (including non coal) of 90 large coal enterprises in the first nine months were 124.47 billion yuan, up 3.8% year on year. In terms of coal demand, first, the growth rate of domestic macro-economy is down (by quarter, the growth rate of GDP in the first quarter is 6.4%, the growth rate in the second quarter is 6.2%, and the growth rate in the third quarter is 6.0%), economic development faces new risk challenges, and the pull of industrial economy on coal consumption is weak. Second, affected by the slowdown of economic growth, the growth rate of electricity consumption in China is limited.

According to the national power planning and Research Center, the average growth rate of electricity consumption in China during the "14th five year plan" and "15th five year plan" is 4.9% and 3.2% respectively. Third, the state strengthens the construction of ecological civilization and the control of the atmospheric environment, and the proportion of non fossil energy keeps increasing, which will further squeeze the proportion of coal consumption. By the end of September, the total installed capacity of non fossil energy power generation was 810 million kilowatts, accounting for 41.4%, 1.2 percentage points higher than the same period of last year; among them, the installed capacity of full caliber grid connected wind power increased by 12.5%; the installed capacity of full caliber grid connected solar power increased by 16.6% year on year; and the installed capacity of nuclear power increased by 24.1% year on year. Fourth, with the continuous increase of the proportion of new energy power generation, the scale of coal power transformation from basic power supply to peak load regulating power supply in some areas is expanding, coal power is increasingly affected by season, extreme weather, new energy consumption, hydropower output and other factors, and the short-term fluctuation of power coal demand is increasing. From the perspective of coal supply, first, the total coal production capacity of the country is still large. With the rapid withdrawal of backward production capacity and continuous release of high-quality production capacity, the overall coal supply support capacity has been greatly enhanced. Second, with the promotion and opening of a number of special railway transportation capacity, such as Daqin line, Mengji line, Shuohuang line, Wari line and Haoji line, the bottleneck of coal transportation nationwide is gradually lifted, but local structural tension still exists. Third, the number of imported coal in the first three quarters increased significantly year on year, and it is expected that the total amount of imported coal in the whole year will remain at a high level.