The situation of coal transportation along the coast will improve significantly

In the second half of the year, due to a large number of imported coal customs clearance, impact on the domestic market, increased downward pressure on the economy, slowing demand growth and other factors, it is difficult to complete the task for both Daqin line transportation and Bohai port coal transportation, resulting in a year-on-year decrease in coal transportation in Bohai port of China from January to November. In the last month of this year, the external environment of the coal market has improved, and the domestic coal purchase volume will increase significantly. Coal production and transportation need all parties to speed up the pace of coal transfer, and the coal market tends to be active. At present, it has entered the low water period, and the hydropower output has decreased significantly. From the hydropower operation in October, the hydropower output of China has decreased by 4.1% year-on-year in October. In November and December, it is winter, when the rainfall is reduced, the hydropower operation is weakened, which is a big probability. The thermal power pressure in coastal areas increases, and the coal consumption of power plants will increase.

At present, the market shows signs of improvement. The daily consumption of the six coastal power plants has risen to 714000 tons, an increase of 150000 tons compared with the beginning of the month. There are more ships that have handled formalities in the port to pull coal. The coal transportation railway and port seize the opportunity to fully organize loading and unloading, increase the effective inventory, improve the efficiency of coal transportation and meet the downstream coal demand. In the later period of the year, with the further cooling of the temperature and the impact of snowfall, the production and supply of coal in the production area may be affected to some extent, and the upstream inventory will be reduced; in addition, due to the lack of flexibility of railway transportation, the inventory of ports around the Bohai Sea may fall, high-quality and low sulfur coal will be strained, and the coastal coal market will change from the supply exceeding the demand in the previous stage to the balance of supply and demand. In December, with the cold weather and the increase of civil power load in East China, the coal consumption of power plants will increase, and the demand for electric coal will recover. In addition, with the overall upgrading of the restrictions on imported coal, the domestic coal market will be significantly better than the previous period. From July to October this year, China's monthly coal import volume remained between 25-33 million tons, and the cumulative import volume in the first ten months was basically the same as the total import volume of last year.

In the middle of November this year, the General Administration of Customs introduced strict control measures. It is expected that in November, the number of imported coal in China will fall to about 20 million tons, and the impact of imported coal on the domestic market will be weakened. Although this winter, the upstream, middle and downstream inventory will continue to be at a high level; however, if the import coal policy is tightened in an all-round way, "peak winter" season, the coastal coal market is likely to tighten. In December, the coal market may usher in a wave of rebound, the double high of coal supply and demand will reappear, and the coal price will usher in a wavelet rebound. In December, in the winter of September, the coal consumption increased; however, with the advent of cold air, the coal demand in East China and central China increased, the daily consumption of six coastal power plants will be further improved, and the North South Coal Transportation will be more busy. Although the phenomenon of high inventory of power plants still exists, once the daily consumption increases sharply, the number of days available for coal storage will drop significantly; in addition, the role of imported coal supplement will be weakened, and the superposition of favorable factors will promote the corresponding increase of domestic coal demand, and the fundamentals of market demand will be improved.