Multiple Positives Stimulate Domestic Cobalt Prices to Rise in August

Cobalt prices rise in August

Cobalt prices stopped falling and rose in August. As of August 31, the cobalt price was 353,500 CNY/ton, an increase of 7.68% from the cobalt price of 328,300 CNY/ton on August 1 at the beginning of the month. On August 31, the cobalt commodity index was 127.16, an increase of 0.07 points from yesterday, a decrease of 46.77% from the highest point in the cycle of 238.91 points (2018-04-15), and an increase of 82.07 from the lowest point of 69.84 points on July 05, 2016. %. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to the present)

It can be seen from the histogram of the cobalt price trend that in August, the cobalt price changed from the previous downward trend, and the cobalt price continued to rise for three consecutive weeks. In August, the cobalt market improved and the cobalt price rose sharply.

International cobalt prices rise

It can be seen from the chart of MB and LME cobalt prices that in August, MB and LME cobalt prices first fell and then rose, overseas cobalt production declined, and international cobalt prices stopped falling and rose, stimulating domestic cobalt prices to follow up, but the overall cobalt market supply and demand were relatively high. Balance, cobalt prices continue to rise without sufficient motivation.

Electricity curtailment in Sichuan stimulates new energy heating

Affected by the increase in high-temperature electricity consumption and the lack of hydropower generation in drought, Sichuan Province has recently cut electricity across the board. Recently, Sichuan Province announced that it will expand the scope of industrial enterprises to allow electricity to be used by the people, which was previously expected to last from August 15 to 20. On August 21st, the notice of power cut will be extended to August 25th. Ningde Times' Sichuan battery factory stopped production due to power cuts, and lithium salt companies in Sichuan stopped production due to power cuts. The Ningde battery factory has reduced production, the supply of new energy batteries has decreased, and the production reduction of lithium salt companies has stimulated lithium salt prices to rise. Overall, power cuts in Sichuan stimulated the heating up of the new energy industry chain.

Purchase and storage news stimulates cobalt market

On August 9, cobalt metal concept stocks moved up. Tengyuan Cobalt (301219.SZ) soared by nearly 8%, Hanrui Cobalt (300618.SZ), Huayou Cobalt (603799.SH) and other stocks Follow up. The price of electrolytic cobalt rose for the first time after falling for several consecutive days, and the price of cobalt compounds such as cobalt sulfate and cobalt chloride rose slightly. Industry insiders confirmed that cobalt metal will be strategically purchased and stored. Stimulated by the purchase and storage news, cobalt-related stocks rose sharply, and the spot market followed suit. In general, the purchase and storage news stimulated the cobalt market to rise.

Cobalt market demand declines

According to data from the China Automobile Association, in July, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 617,000 and 593,000 respectively, an increase of 1.2 times year-on-year and a slight decrease month-on-month. According to the latest data from the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, in July, the installed capacity of power batteries in my country was 24.2GWh, a year-on-year increase of 114.2% and a month-on-month decrease of 10.5%. Among them, the installed capacity of ternary batteries was 9.8GWh, accounting for 40.7% of the total installed capacity, an increase of 80.4% year-on-year, and a decrease of 15.0% from the previous month; the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 14.3GWh, accounting for 59.3% of the total installed capacity, a year-on-year increase of 147.2%, month-on-month. down 7.0%. It can be seen from the data from the China Automobile Association that the sales of new energy vehicles decreased month-on-month, and the demand for cobalt market grew less than expected. From the installed capacity of power batteries, it can be seen that the installed capacity of power batteries decreased month-on-month in July, and the installed capacity of ternary batteries declined at a rate. Significantly greater than the rate of decline in the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries, the demand for cobalt has declined significantly.


Market overview

Stimulated by many positive news, cobalt prices fluctuated and rose in August. First, there were purchases and storage, then limited electricity and international cobalt prices rose, which stimulated the rebound of cobalt prices step by step. However, the demand side of the cobalt market did not perform as well as expected. The sales of new energy vehicles fell month-on-month. The installed capacity of ternary batteries was seriously insufficient. The rise in cobalt prices was insufficiently supported. Cobalt prices fell slightly at the end of August. In the future, the domestic power curtailment has basically ended, and the cobalt industry chain companies have resumed operations one after another. There is no fundamental change in the supply and demand of the cobalt market. The rise in international cobalt prices is beneficial to the domestic cobalt market. , it is expected that the cobalt price will be mainly consolidated in the market outlook.