On June 15, after the United States and Iran reached an agreement aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz, the LNG vessel Disha, chartered by India’s Petronet LNG, became one of the few ships to pass through the waterway. However, shipping activity has not returned to normal.
According to Reuters, there were around 155 tankers in the area as of June 15, compared with 201 tankers in May. Shipowners are still waiting for clearer security arrangements, especially details on mine clearance and navigation safety.
This means the Hormuz issue is moving from “whether the route can reopen” to “whether ships are willing to sail through it.”
The Route May Reopen, But Confidence Has Not Fully Returned
For the chemical industry, this distinction is critical. The Strait of Hormuz is not an ordinary shipping lane. It is a core export route for Middle Eastern energy and chemical feedstocks.
LNG, LPG, naphtha, methanol, sulfur, fertilizers and multiple basic chemicals all depend on this route to varying degrees.
Even if the agreement sends a reopening signal, actual logistics recovery will not happen immediately as long as shipowners, insurers and buyers remain concerned about safety risks.
Oil prices have already reacted to the agreement. The market has priced in expectations that Hormuz transit may gradually resume. But a decline in crude prices does not mean the risk has disappeared.
For chemical buyers, the real issue now is not only the paper price of raw materials. It is also about shipping schedules, insurance premiums, arrival timing and contract execution certainty.
Asia Remains the Most Sensitive End of the Chain
Asian markets will remain highly sensitive to any delay in Hormuz normalization. China, India, Japan and South Korea all rely heavily on Middle Eastern energy and petrochemical feedstocks.
Even if a few vessels begin to move through the waterway, large-scale traffic recovery will still depend on whether shipowners regain confidence, whether insurance costs fall, whether ports operate smoothly and whether the route is considered safe enough for regular commercial transit.
In the short term, Middle Eastern chemical logistics may enter a “partial recovery” stage: the route is expected to reopen, individual ships begin to pass, but full normalization still takes time.
For buyers, it is too early to assume that freight costs and feedstock prices will fall quickly.
If shipping recovery is slower than expected, LPG, naphtha, methanol and sulfur could still carry a risk premium.
For traders, the key task is not simply to chase lower prices. It is to confirm whether cargoes can leave port steadily, whether vessels are willing to carry them and whether insurance costs remain manageable.
The reopening signal is important because it gives the market a direction. But real recovery still depends on shipping confidence.
