The next 'PD-1' may appear in the field of weight loss

Today, people living in big cities no longer need to worry about any possibility of nutritional deficiencies; On the contrary, the problem of obesity caused by overnutrition has become as unpopular or even unaccepted as a disease.

Prompted by the anxiety of obese people, or even obese people at all, any health care products or drugs related to "weight loss" have an extremely large market.

"Semeglutide" - the hottest diet pill in the past year, through Weibo, Xiaohongshu and other social software, the popularity quickly spread.

The market demand for "semeglutide" even exceeded Novo Nordisk's expectations.

In the first three quarters of 2022, the sales of semeglutide in China have exceeded 1.5 billion yuan, which is also achieved when Novo Nordisk has restricted the supply of out-of-hospital markets.

In this era, a new mechanism of "diet pills" can always capture people's hearts.

With the popularity of "semeglutide", the expectations of the capital market for the similar mechanism drugs of "semeglutide" are gradually rising.

Many investors even predict that this will be a "super track" similar to PD-1.

01 

A miracle medicine for weight loss that can be slimmed with injections

The reason why "semeglutide" is popular all over the network is that its weight-reducing effect can withstand the test.

As a GLP-1 (glucagon-like peptide-1) receptor agonist, "semeglutide" works by stimulating the body to produce more GLP-1.

GLP-1 is a protein secreted by human glucagon gene, which is widely distributed in many organs and tissues throughout the body, which can promote the secretion of human insulin and reduce blood sugar.

Of course, weight loss is not because GLP-1 makes excessive insulin secretion and energy expenditure accelerated, but can suppress the appetite of the central nervous system and delay gastric emptying.

Simply put, GLP-1 receptor agonists can eventually make people feel less hungry, eat less, and naturally lose weight.

Based on a clear weight loss mechanism, "Semeglutide" shows an extremely powerful weight loss effect.

According to its phase III clinical data, the weight loss ratio was between 10.6% and 18.2% after 68 weeks of administration in different groups. During this period, the subject only needs to inject "semeglutide" once a week, and no other weight loss measures are required.

What is this concept? If you weigh 70kg, you can lose at least 14 pounds in a year and a half; If you are lucky, you can lose about 30 pounds.

It is based on this data that "semeglutide" was approved by the FDA in June 2021 for chronic weight management. It is precisely because of the super weight loss effect that "semeglutide" is highly sought after in China.

 02 

Prescription drugs became aesthetic products

Of course, "Semeglutide" can catch fire, essentially because it is "out of the circle".

In nature, "Semeglutide" is a prescription drug, only a specific group of people are eligible to use, the specific characteristics are:

Adults who are obese (BMI ≥30 kg/m2) or overweight (BMI ≥27 kg/m2) with at least one weight-related comorbidity.

The BMI index is calculated by dividing a person's weight (kilograms) by the height (meters) squared. If the result of overweight is calculated, an adult with a height of 1.7m can only get a prescription from a doctor when the weight exceeds 78KG.

Since the audience of "semeglutide" is mostly female, the audience size is relatively limited. After all, in the case of a height of only 1.7m, adult women weighing more than 78KG are rare.

In fact, even domestic people who meet the weight of the country can not get a prescription for "semeglutide" at present. Because, "semeglutide" can only be used for hypoglycemic drugs in China, and the indication for weight loss has not been approved.

However, there is always a group that focuses on weight, not for health, but more anxious than health. This factor prompts them to search for all the information related to weight loss all the time, looking for a newer, simpler "antidote".

This is how "Semeglutide" caught fire. All kinds of marketing numbers carry the slogan of "lying down to lose weight", so that people who can't control their mouths are full of expectations.

From Weibo to Xiaohongshu, there are constantly people sharing their check-in journey on social media, allowing more weight loss enthusiasts to embark on the journey of pulling weeds.

They rushed into the hospital's endocrinology and metabolism department, complaining that they had diabetes and that they knew better than the doctors about the prescription drug they needed, "semeglutide."

In the case of off-label use, "semeglutide" has completely changed from clinical use to medical beauty products. This also makes the commercialization logic of "semeglutide" completely changed.

In 2021, Novo Nordisk's GLP-1 receptor agonists used in diabetes treatment had a total sales of only 1.786 billion yuan, and semeglutide was only 293 million yuan.

However, in 2022, when consumption is out of the circle, the sales of "semeglutide" in the first three quarters have reached 1.536 billion yuan. The ceiling of China's diet drug market may exceed Novo Nordisk's imagination.

03 

A big war that is on the verge of breaking out

However, how big the market where you can lose weight "lying down" is, how fierce the competition is.

In the face of an attractive market, domestic companies are not absent. At present, many enterprises, including Huadong Pharmaceutical, Innovent Biologics, Hengrui Pharmaceutical, Dongguang Pharmaceutical, Hongyun Huaning, Aimeike, Gan&Lee Pharmaceutical, etc., have entered the game, and the war is about to break out.

The first to take the lead in domestic substitution are Huadong Medicine and Renhui Biotechnology, and the GLP-1 receptor agonist weight reduction indications of both companies have been submitted for marketing applications.

However, in this area, a short-lived first-mover advantage may not make much sense. Competition for GLP-1 receptor agonist weight-lowering indications depends on product adherence and efficacy.

What reflects compliance is the frequency of injection of the product. "Semeglutide" only needs to be injected once a week, while Huadong Medicine's liraglutide needs to be injected once a day, and Renhui Bio's Benaglutide is injected three times a day, which is comparable to a sewing machine.

It is obvious that the gap in injection frequency will directly affect the commercialization prospects of the product. In fact, the product that is injected once a week is also not safe, because "semeglutide" has already launched an oral drug.

The key to influencing efficacy lies in the product mechanism. The technical race of GLP-1 receptor agonists is not limited to competition in the same dimension, and multiple agonists targeting multiple targets are launching dimensionality reduction attacks.

For example, Lilly's GIP/GLP-1 dual receptor agonist Tirzepatide, which has been approved by the FDA, has increased the weight reduction effect by more than 20%.

Amgen's AMG133 shows the potential for greater combat effectiveness, losing 14.5% in 3 months; In contrast, the weight loss effect of "semeglutide" in the same period is only about 6%, and the gap is obvious.

Looking at the long term, in this obesity battle, only products that take into account "compliance + efficacy" can win the strategic supremacy. The answer to stand out has long been written, depending on how pharmaceutical companies win by strength.