International resumption of work fell short of expectations, methanol rose sharp

Since the end of August, the overall performance of the domestic methanol market has been strong. The mainland spot, port spot, port paper cargo, and futures have all seen sharp increases. The purchase of downstream olefins and the reduction of external supply have become the main positive support for this rise.

Last week, after crude oil fell below US$40/barrel, domestic energy and chemical products experienced a major correction. Although methanol had a short-term correction, the overall performance was relatively strong. At the beginning of this week, the mainland maintained stable market conditions, and there was still a slight increase in some parts. However, there were more temporary stops or negative losses in foreign installations, which caused the main methanol futures contract on Monday night trading to rise sharply above 2100.

Specifically, in August, affected by the rising prices of non-Iranian cargoes, international non-Iranian methanol prices continued to rise. Some of them rose to US$235/ton by CFR in November, and the sharp rebound in prices led The gradual recovery of international methanol start-ups, including early-stage installations in the Middle East, America and Southeast Asia, the market expects that subsequent international methanol start-ups may maintain a high level of more than 70%, and China’s methanol imports will remain above 1.1 million tons. Some installations again came to the news of stopping or reducing the load, and most of the stopping installations are related to China's major methanol importing countries, including installations in Iran, Oman, and Teba. Therefore, it has strong support for the market, and port spot and futures have seen a large increase , And obviously stronger than the mainland market.

Looking at the market outlook, although the start of international methanol is currently being resumed, the resumption of some installations has led to slower resumption of work than expected. The market still has concerns about subsequent imports, and the mainland market still has replenishment support before the National Day. The mainland and ports may It is difficult to have a lot of room for storage. For the post-National Day market, non-Iranian goods, especially South American goods, may maintain a tight trend in terms of import volume. Follow-up imports will pay more attention to the arrival of Iranian goods. It is expected that the overall methanol market may be May become weaker.