August 21st, according to news,
The butadiene market in China is showing a strong trend, with traders exhibiting a clear reluctance to sell. Multiple positive factors are boosting the bullish sentiment in the market, and the tight supply situation is unlikely to ease in the short term. The average difference indicator shows that the current state is one of strong consolidation (favoring an upward trend), with prices over a 1-year period at a moderate level, still leaving room for a slight increase.
I. Table of Mean Difference Changes
| Average Difference Type | Today's Value | Yesterday's Value | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-day Average Difference (D5) | 316.67 | 353.33 | - |
| 10-day Average Difference (D10) | 400.66 | 378.00 | + |
| 20-day Average Difference (D20) | 537.50 | 474.33 | + |
II. Signal Status Determination
The current combination of average difference change directions is (－, ＋, ＋), which is a strong consolidation (bullish) signal.
Three, conclusions on trend directions
The price trend is characterized by oscillations (strong consolidation with a bullish bias). Reason: The directions of change in the three moving averages are not entirely consistent. Specifically, the 5-day moving average declined compared to yesterday, while the 10-day and 20-day moving averages continued to widen, reflecting the oscillatory pattern typical of strong consolidation (with a bullish bias). Combined with fundamental market factors—tight supply, sellers’ reluctance to sell, and bullish sentiment—all supporting the market—overall, the market is exhibiting a generally strong performance.
IV. Positional Spatial Reference
60-day price cycle position: High, with limited short-term upside potential.
Price position in the 3-month cycle: High, with limited short-term upside potential.
1-year cycle price position: median, with some room for upward movement in the medium term.
Overall, in the short term, the relatively high prices will limit the upward potential, but from a medium-term perspective, factors such as tight supply in China will still support the possibility of an increase.
Five, Trend Chart Display
Six, Market Fundamentals Situation
Chinese market prices: On August 20, the delivered price of butadiene in Shandong region was between 12,100-12,300 CNY/ton, and the ex-tank self-pickup quotation in East China was 11,800-12,000 CNY/ton; Sinopec's regional execution prices increased significantly, with East China, North China, and Central China executing at 12,200 CNY/ton, and South China at 12,100 CNY/ton. This is a significant increase from August 19, when the prices were 11,650 CNY/ton (East China, North China, Central China) and 11,550 CNY/ton (South China).
International market prices: On August 18, European butadiene FOB Rotterdam closed at USD 1,060–1,068 per ton, and FD Northwest Europe closed at EUR 1,085–1,093 per ton; in the Asian market, South Korea FOB was quoted at USD 1,415–1,423 per ton, while China CFR was quoted at USD 1,475–1,483 per ton.
Supply and demand situation: The tight supply situation is unlikely to ease in the short term, and traders are reluctant to sell; downstream players have been stocking up in advance, leading to a growing sentiment of price increases in the market. Multiple positive factors are collectively driving the market trend.
Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
