Urea Market Prices Decline in the First Week After the Holiday (May 1–May 12)

May 12 news

I. Price Trends

According to the commodity market analysis system, as of May 12, the reference average price of urea in the Shandong region of China was 1,837 CNY/ton, a decrease of 2.00% from the reference average price of 1,875 CNY/ton on May 1.

II. Market Analysis

Market Conditions

After the May Day holiday, the urea market prices in China have shown a weak decline. Recently, the urea futures market has weakened, negatively impacting the spot market. As of May 12th, the urea market quotations in Shandong region are around 1,780-1,850 CNY/ton, in Hebei region around 1,800-1,840 CNY/ton, in Henan region around 1,800-1,860 CNY/ton, in Hubei region around 1,860-1,890 CNY/ton, and in Liaoning region around 1,850-1,890 CNY/ton.

Supply and Demand Situation

Supply-wise, the daily production of urea has decreased, but the overall inventory remains high. Demand-wise, the fertilizer demand for urea has weakened, and the operating rates of downstream compound fertilizer enterprises in China have declined, leading to limited purchases of urea.

III. Future Market Forecast

Urea analysts believe: Recently, the urea market trend in China has been downward. The urea futures market continues to fall, and the peak season for urea demand has passed. Under the dominance of negative factors, it is expected that the short-term urea prices in China will remain weak.

4. Technical Analysis

From the spot commodity market analysis system, it can be seen that currently, the 10-day moving average of urea is below the 20-day moving average, indicating a trend that aligns with the forecasted decline in the Chinese market.

Auxiliary indicators show that the current urea price is in the mid-to-high range of the five-tier pricing structure. We forecast that there is still room for urea prices to fall in the future, so we recommend remaining cautious.