Market forecast of 20 major chemical products

WTI oil prices have rebounded above US$40 again. In the short term, oil prices may still be affected by the negative impact of the macro environment and fall back. However, technical adjustments to oil prices will not change the mid-to-long-term trend of oil prices moving towards the US$50-60 range.

Although the global epidemic continues to develop and major economies with the exception of China, negative economic growth in 2020 is a foregone conclusion, but the time for the vaccine to be launched on the market is approaching, and the global economic recovery can be expected.

Many central banks around the world have exploded with explosive credit expansion. With the decline in GDP, “helicopter money” has become the norm. 150% higher than GDP! Global debt has exploded.

The EU proposes to raise the emission reduction target. The auto industry: there is a large risk of unemployment. The European Stoxx 600 Index's decline widened to 2%.

US stocks fell for three consecutive weeks, the longest decline in nearly a year; the death of Justice Ginsberg has added uncertainty to the new round of stimulus cases.

The convergence of monetary policy will affect liquidity, but it will not change the trend of economic recovery in the short term. In the second half of the year, the "double allowances" have evolved into "acceptable finances and stable currencies."

The Ministry of Finance and other departments have clarified the fuel cell subsidy policy, clearly defined the subsidy with awards and the declaration of urban agglomerations.

Ministry of Commerce: Establish a new batch of pilot free trade zones, highlight the smooth circulation and build a new development pattern.

Central Bank: In August, transactions in the inter-bank money market increased by 14.9% year-on-year.

LPR has not changed for 5 consecutive months, and the average mainstream mortgage interest rate in 36 cities has only fallen in September.

Some chemical products market forecast:

1. Last week, the methanol inventory of East China and South China ports declined slightly, and the market rose first and then returned. Oil prices rebounded. In the short term, demand in the traditional peak season of September and October is expected to improve. Overall, the supply and demand situation is favorable for the market, and it is expected that the methanol market this week will still fluctuate strongly.

2. The overhaul of part of the PVC equipment is over, the restart status is to be determined, and some sources are exported. East China is tired, but South China is less. Demand is still not strong in the current peak season. It is expected that the PVC spot market will continue to fluctuate within the range this week, and the East China and South China markets may be slightly differentiated.

3. Last Tuesday, the arrival volume of toluene at East China Port increased significantly, and the inventory of toluene port decreased slightly. Diphenyl inventories in South China increased and decreased slightly. The current peak season for downstream demand is not booming. Oil prices rebounded. It is expected that the toluene market will fluctuate mainly this week, and xylene will fluctuate weakly.

4. The current prices of raw materials propylene and n-butanol are still under pressure on acrylic acid and ester manufacturers. Some devices are under maintenance, and the overall operating rate has dropped to around 50%. The demand side has entered the traditional peak season, and there is demand for stocking before the National Day holiday. It is expected that acrylic and ester manufacturers will continue to hold up prices, and the spot market will be strong.

5. The maleic anhydride market rose again last week. After three consecutive weeks of significant upward movement, the operating rate of maleic anhydride manufacturers is expected to increase, while downstream receiving goods are cautious. However, the overall supply is still tight, and it is expected that the spot market may still rise, but the increase is limited.

6. With high costs and a decrease in port arrivals, it is estimated that the styrene market will have strong volatility in the short term.

7. High cost, but general demand, it is estimated that the DOP market may fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term.

8. The load of phthalic anhydride plant is expected to pick up, coupled with the limited support of downstream demand, it is estimated that the short-term rise of the phthalic anhydride market will be difficult.

9. The supply is relatively loose. It is estimated that the acetone market may be weakened in the short term, waiting for downstream stocks before the holiday.

10. The holding cost is not low, but due to the negative supply pressure, it is estimated that the short-term upside of the phenol market may be limited.

11. With the increase in spot supply, it is estimated that the MMA market may be difficult to rise and fall in the short term.

12. Crude oil has rebounded, and the pure benzene market has been sticking to its operation recently, and the downstream stockings are generally active before the holiday. Spot inventories have declined, and it is estimated that the short-term downside risk of the pure benzene market may be small.

13. The supply is expected to rebound, and the PTA market rise is suppressed, but crude oil is good, and it is estimated that the market downside space will not be large.

14. Crude oil rebounded, coupled with better demand, natural rubber inventory eased, and the market fluctuated mainly upwards. It is estimated that natural rubber will be stronger in the short term.

15. The focus of the domestic acetic acid market continued to rise last week. The factory maintains a low inventory, but the operating rate of acetic acid is high, and there is a certain amount of inventory downstream. The domestic trade demand is general. It is expected that the market outlook will be high and the upward space will continue to decrease.

16. The domestic butanone market rose within a narrow range last week. Before the National Day, some downstream factories still have demand for replenishment in the market, but methyl ketone merchants are still able to take the goods, and the inventory level is declining. It is expected that the market may still rise this week.

17. The domestic ethylene glycol market rose first and then fell last week. The overall oil price still has room for upside; downstream stocking and stagnant shipments increase before the holiday, and the port maintains the destocking stage; the operation of new domestic installations and maintenance devices restarts, and the supply begins to increase gradually; the downstream polyester load is running at a high level and just needs support before the holiday Surviving. It is expected that the market volatility this week is more likely to be weak.

18. The domestic diethylene glycol market continued to decline last week. There is still room for upside in oil prices as a whole; the current overall domestic operating rate is low; port supply is under high pressure; the main downstream unsaturated resin factories have high raw material inventories, and purchases are more wait-and-see. It is expected that the market volatility this week is more likely to be weak.

19. There is still room for upside in oil prices; domestic installations have maintained high-load operation, new production capacity has been put into production one after another, and domestic supply pressure continues to increase; the peak demand season for gold, nine and silver ten, coincides with the Mid-Autumn Festival and the National Day holiday, and downstream stocks are more likely to stock up in advance Big. In summary, it is expected that the PE market will fluctuate and be warm this week.

20. There is still room for upside in oil prices; petrochemical destocking has slowed down; no new installations have been parked or restarted for the time being, and changes in installations are limited. However, as the National Day holiday approaches, some downstream companies have demand for inventory and inventory, and demand is expected to improve. It is expected that the PP market will fluctuate strongly this week.