Norwegian Gas Supplies to Europe and the UK Surged in November to Their Highest Level in Nearly 10 Months

Norway's pipeline gas exports to continental Europe and the UK rose to a 10-month high in November, with supplies now approaching total capacity. Data show that the total delivery volume of Norwegian natural gas in November was 9.85 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 6% and a month-on-month increase of 8%, which is the highest level in the past 10 months.

Reliable Norwegian supplies to Europe and the UK will be key to meeting higher seasonal demand for natural gas in winter 2023. Norway is expected to have little maintenance planned until February 2024. European natural gas prices remain relatively high, with Dutch TTF natural gas futures quoted at around 39.99 euros/MWh, which has also prompted Norwegian natural gas producers to keep production at the highest level.

Since Russia's pipeline natural gas exports decreased in 2022, Norway has become Europe's largest single source of natural gas supply.

Due to the impact of the epidemic in 2020 and 2021 and Norway's continued pursuit of high natural gas production during the energy crisis in 2022, unit maintenance work has been postponed, so a heavy maintenance plan was implemented in the summer of 2023, and the restart time of some plants was extended. Export volume has been affected to a certain extent.

Pipeline gas terminals in Norway are typically in the UK, Belgium, France, the Netherlands and Germany. However, since November last year, the Baltic Sea Gas Pipeline project has begun to transport natural gas from Norway to Poland. The Baltic Sea Pipeline is developed by a joint venture between Polish Gas Systems and Denmark's National Grid Company (Energinet) to connect Norwegian gas fields to Poland through Denmark. The maximum designed annual gas transmission capacity is 10 billion cubic meters.

As part of the project, Norwegian gas also enters the Danish grid. According to S&P Global data, a total of 744 million cubic meters of Norwegian natural gas flowed into Denmark's power grid in November, the highest flow to date.

The transmission of natural gas through the Baltic Sea Pipeline has caused Norway to gradually reduce the volume of traditional terminal transmissions. From the end of 2022, the reduction in natural gas transmission volume to France is particularly obvious. However, Norwegian gas supplies to Germany remain high as Germany looks to replace Russian gas with Norwegian gas. In November, Norwegian supplies to Germany totaled 3.29 billion cubic meters, the highest since May 2023.