Supply remains generally loose, the acrylonitrile market fluctuates within a range

November 14, News

This week, the fundamentals have not shown any significant improvement, with overall supply remaining loose and the market consolidating within a range. As of November 14, the main ex-tank self-pickup price at East China ports is 8000-8150 CNY/ton, a decrease of 50 CNY/ton from the low end of last week and an increase of 50 CNY/ton from the high end. In the Shandong market, the short-distance delivery price is 7800-8000 CNY/ton, a decrease of 100 CNY/ton from the low end of last week.

Supply is ample:

Within the period, supply and demand fundamentals remained relatively stable, with manufacturers reporting steady overall sales and inventory levels kept under controlled management. Shandong Kelul's acrylonitrile unit has resumed operations on two production lines; meanwhile, Fushun Petrochemical’s 92,000-ton acrylonitrile plant restarted this week. Currently, Yulong Petrochemical continues operating one of its two 130,000-ton acrylonitrile units, while sourcing additional acrylonitrile products from external suppliers.

According to statistics, as of November 13, China’s acrylonitrile plants maintained a weekly capacity utilization rate of 78.68%, up 0.69% from the previous cycle. Weekly production reached approximately 89,700 tons, an increase of 800 tons compared to the prior period. Meanwhile, total inventory stood at around 52,800 tons, rising slightly by 200 tons from the previous week—essentially unchanged from the week before.

Requirement:

This week, the capacity utilization rate of major downstream industries in China increased. The capacity utilization rate for ABS was 71.8%, up 0.2% from last week; the capacity utilization rate for acrylic fiber enterprises was 73.39%, unchanged from last week; and the capacity utilization rate for acrylamide was 54.64%, up 1.36% from last week. Overall, the increase in demand was limited.

Cost reduction:

During the week, the prices of upstream propylene and ammonia in China rebounded, increasing the raw material costs for acrylonitrile production. At the same time, acrylonitrile prices also saw a slight increase, leading to a temporary improvement in production profits. As of November 13, the market price of propylene in Shandong was 5760-5800 CNY/ton, an increase of 170 CNY/ton from the previous weekend's 5600-5630 CNY/ton. Meanwhile, acrylonitrile prices slightly increased, significantly improving the production loss situation. According to statistics, the average production cost of acrylonitrile this week was 8180 CNY/ton, up 0.42% week-over-week. The average production profit of acrylonitrile was -99 CNY/ton, an increase of 6 CNY/ton week-over-week.

Later forecasts indicate that the current acrylonitrile market in China is experiencing fluctuation within a range. The main contract factories have no inventory pressure and continue to maintain prices. In the short term, there are unplanned demand increases in the Shandong market, which support the sentiment of market participants. However, the overall supply remains relatively loose, and the market is expected to mainly consolidate within a range in the short term.