Supply Eases, Acrylonitrile Market Continues to Decline in China

October 24th, news

This week, the fundamentals have not shown any significant improvement. The overall supply remains loose with no expectation of reduction in the short term, while demand remains stable, with buyers mainly purchasing according to their needs. Acrylonitrile producers continue to lower prices. As of October 24th, the mainstream ex-tank self-pickup price at East China ports is 7,800-7,900 CNY/ton, down 50-100 CNY/ton from last week; the short-distance delivery price in the Shandong market is 7,800-7,900 CNY/ton, down 50 CNY/ton from last week.

Supply is ample:

There were no fluctuations in the facilities during the week. The 92,000-ton/year acrylonitrile plant of Fushun Petrochemical is still shut down, with the restart time delayed and to be determined. The supply remains loose during the period, but at the same time, downstream users are restocking at a low level, keeping the factory inventory under control. According to statistics, as of October 23, the weekly capacity utilization rate of acrylonitrile plants in China reached 79.37%, with a weekly output of about 90,500 tons, unchanged from the previous period. The total inventory is around 51,000 tons, also unchanged from last week.

Demand is declining:

This week, the capacity utilization rate of the main downstream industries of acrylonitrile in China decreased. The capacity utilization rate of ABS was 72.8%, a decrease of 0.3% from last week. Qilu Petrochemical's 60,000-ton acrylic fiber unit began a gradual shutdown for maintenance on October 15, with plans to last about one month. The capacity utilization rate of acrylic fiber enterprises dropped to 73.39%, a decrease of 2.24% from last week. The capacity utilization rate of acrylamide dropped to 54.21%, a decrease of 0.4% from last week, and the overall demand decreased.

Cost reduction:

This week, the price decrease of raw material propylene has widened, weakening the cost support for acrylonitrile. As of October 23, the market price of propylene in Shandong, China, was 6000-6050 CNY/ton, a decrease of 120-150 CNY/ton from the previous weekend's price of 6150-6170 CNY/ton. At the same time, the price decrease of acrylonitrile narrowed, slightly improving the production loss situation this week. According to statistics, the average production cost of acrylonitrile this week was 8423 CNY/ton, a decrease of 2.40% compared to the previous week. The average production profit of acrylonitrile was -533 CNY/ton, an increase of 165 CNY/ton compared to the previous week.

Later forecasts indicate that fundamentals remain unchanged, with supply continuing to ease. At the same time, recent cost-based support has also weakened, prompting suppliers to gradually lower their quotes. Market sentiment remains bearish, and shifts in the supply side will continue to be the key factor determining whether the market can truly bottom out in the near term.