Insufficient Cost and Demand Support; PTA Prices to Weaken

November 14th, according to news,

According to the commodity market analysis system, the PTA market in China this week (November 10-14) showed a trend of first falling and then rising. By November 14, the spot price of PTA in the East China region was 4,671 CNY/ton, an increase of 0.55% from the beginning of the week.

As of November 13, in the international crude oil market, the settlement price for the December WTI crude oil futures contract was $58.69 per barrel, while the January Brent crude oil futures contract settled at $63.01 per barrel. Moving forward, it will be crucial to closely monitor the extent of the supply surplus emerging in the oil market—this remains the key factor driving oil price trends. Currently, global inventories continue to build up further. If this inventory accumulation persists at a faster-than-expected pace, oil prices are likely to remain under downward pressure amid ongoing market volatility.

On the PTA supply front, Sichuan Energy Investment is undergoing maintenance this week, while Fuhai Chuang is adjusting its load. Other units remain largely unchanged. As a result, China's overall production has slightly declined, with the industry's operating rate hovering around 76%. Next week, units in the East China region are scheduled for maintenance, though most other facilities will stay stable, leading to a modest drop in output.

The downstream polyester industry saw a narrow decline in utilization rates to 87%, despite some Chinese polyester plants increasing their loads during the week—such as Sanfangxiang—but this was offset by plant maintenance at Chongqing Wankai. As a result, the overall supply contraction in the polyester industry outpaced any minor increases. Companies are now relying primarily on rigid demand-based procurement, lacking the momentum for sustained restocking, which has led to a return to typically subdued production and sales levels. Meanwhile, at the textile end, cooling temperatures have prompted some inventory digestion, yet overall order volumes remain largely unchanged, with market participants still adopting a cautious, wait-and-see approach.

Analysts believe that in the short term, PTA supply will remain tight, and demand will stay stable. However, as terminal demand begins to decline and purchasing enthusiasm is hindered, coupled with a downward shift in the focus of crude oil prices, it is expected that PTA market prices will weaken.