Outlook for the Declining Acetone Market in February 2026 and Future Prospects

February 27 News

In February 2026, the acetone market showed an overall downward trend, with prices slightly lower than at the beginning of the month. The main reason was ample supply and a slower-than-expected recovery in demand, leading to a state of loose supply and demand. Prices exhibited a "high-level decline, with minor adjustments at the end of the month" characteristic. Acetone prices in February continued the downward trend from January, with a moderate decline and small regional differences. According to data, on February 27, the benchmark price of acetone was 4,605.00 CNY/ton, down 2.02% from the beginning of the month (4,700.00 CNY/ton). The current price is at a low level for the past year, only 557.5 CNY/ton higher than the annual minimum of 4,047.50 CNY/ton.

Supply side: Operating rates are rising, and inventories continue to accumulate.

In February, the supply of acetone in China showed a pattern of "recovery in operating rates and increased inventory," which was the main driver of the market decline. As of February 24, the port inventory of acetone in China was 51,500 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from February 13, at a slightly higher than reasonable level. The operating rate of phenol and acetone plants in China was 88.64%, an increase of 2.61% from the previous week. With fewer plant maintenance activities and full capacity release, coupled with the expectation of new capacity in 2026, the situation of oversupply remains unchanged. The arrival of more cargo ships in the future will further increase inventory, reinforcing the ample supply situation.

Demand side: Downstream resumption of work is lagging, and procurement demand remains subdued.

The weaker-than-expected demand recovery is another key factor for the market downturn. The Spring Festival holiday in February led to a delayed resumption of work downstream, with procurement mainly driven by essential needs, making it difficult to absorb the ample supply. Among the main downstream sectors, the operating rates of bisphenol A, MMA, and isopropanol all declined, while MIBK production remained flat without any increase. Solvent plants were largely shut down during the Spring Festival, further weakening demand support.

Cost support is limited, and market sentiment is subdued.

On the cost side, the strength of pure benzene this month provided some support to acetone, mitigating the downward trend but not changing the overall direction. The high price of crude oil had limited transmission effect, and with the oversupply, the cost support was weakened. In terms of market sentiment, the basic chemical sector where acetone is located showed a divergence, with industry players mainly adopting a wait-and-see attitude, showing weak willingness for active procurement, which further pushed down the price.

Short-term fluctuations remain stable, but medium- and long-term pressures persist.

In February, the acetone market in China declined, primarily due to ample supply and weak demand. The current loose supply and demand situation remains unchanged, with short-term price fluctuations and long-term pressure still present. In the short term, the resumption of production by downstream industries will gradually drive up demand, but supply remains abundant. It is expected that in March, the spot price of acetone will show a weak fluctuation, with the mainstream price in East China possibly ranging from 4,500 to 4,700 CNY per ton.