Geopolitical Conflict Conduction, Butanol Prices in China Increased by Over 7% in Three Days

March 4th, according to the news

According to the commodity market analysis system, as of March 4, 2026, the reference price for n-butanol in Shandong, China, is 6,480 CNY per ton. Compared to March 1 (when the reference price for n-butanol was 6,033 CNY per ton), the price has increased by 447 yuan, a price increase of 7.40%.

In early March, the n-butanol market in China welcomed a strong increase.

From the commodity market analysis system, it can be seen that in the first week of March, the overall Shandong n-butanol market continued to move towards higher levels. From the 1st to the 4th, major n-butanol producers in Shandong successively increased the price of n-butanol, with the maximum single-day increase reaching 500 CNY/ton, and the market negotiation focus continuously converged upwards. On March 4th, the reference price for Shandong n-butanol fell to around 6,400-6,550 CNY/ton.

Analysis of Core Impact Factors

Macro Perspective: At the end of February 2026, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalated, leading to a decline in shipping efficiency through the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, global logistics costs and supply expectations for crude oil and basic petrochemicals were repriced. Market risk aversion toward “supply disruptions” pushed up raw material prices.

Implicit Cost Transmission: The crude oil-propylene-n-butanol chain—the geopolitical premium embedded in international crude oil prices—is transmitted via the naphtha-propylene route to the production costs of n-butanol. Under the dual pressure of rising costs and low inventory levels, companies are choosing to raise their quoted prices in order to maintain profit margins.

Downstream Demand Recovery: After the holiday, downstream industries of n-butanol in China, such as coatings and plasticizers, have gradually resumed operations. The demand for restocking from downstream sectors is being gradually released, boosting market sentiment and increasing transaction activity. The demand transmission is gradually improving, supporting the upward trend of n-butanol prices in the Shandong region.

Future Market Prediction

In the short term, Shandong's n-butanol prices are expected to continue their relatively strong performance. It is important to closely monitor the operating rates of major production plants and changes in inventory levels, as well as the pace of recovery in downstream industry demand and the ripple effects of fluctuations in raw material costs on the market.