September 11 news
The latest round of adjustments to China's refined oil prices took effect at 24:00 on September 11. The retail price of refined oil in China is about to increase, marking the twelfth rise, fifth fall, and one suspension in 2026. During this cycle, crude oil prices have been on an upward trend, with the crude oil change rate remaining positive, leading to a consecutive second increase in the retail price of refined oil.
As we enter this pricing cycle, international oil prices have surged significantly. As of the 10th, the settlement price for NYMEX October WTI crude oil futures stood at $96.05 per barrel, while the settlement price for ICE November Brent crude oil futures reached $101.21 per barrel. Both benchmark crude oil prices hit their highest closing levels since May 22, returning to the “$100 mark” after nearly four months. The key driver behind this breakthrough in oil prices is the escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East—from “intermittent friction” to a “sustained cycle of retaliation,” completely upending earlier market expectations of “low-intensity conflict and manageable supply.” As a result, the market has re-priced the risk of prolonged disruptions to energy supplies. Ongoing geopolitical tensions continue to erode shipping efficiency through key straits, further tightening physical supply and providing solid bottom support for oil prices, thereby driving crude oil prices higher. In addition, API inventory data show a structural divergence that aligns with an overall tight supply-demand balance. Coupled with the EIA’s upward revision of its annual oil price forecast, fundamental factors are further bolstering the sustained strength of oil prices at elevated levels. To mitigate the impact of rising international oil prices on China, temporary regulatory measures have been introduced for China’s refined oil prices, while maintaining the existing pricing mechanism framework. According to calculations based on the current pricing mechanism, on September 11, the prices of China’s gasoline and diesel (standard grades) should have risen by 435 yuan and 420 CNY per ton, respectively. After the regulatory adjustments, the actual increases were reduced to 260 yuan and 250 CNY per ton. Converted into per-liter prices, this translates to an increase of 0.20 yuan per liter for No. 92 gasoline, 0.21 yuan per liter for No. 95 gasoline, and 0.21 yuan per liter for No. 0 diesel.
Gasoline: Recently, the operation of Chinese refineries has not changed much, and the supply of refined oil products is normal. The operating rate of local refineries in Shandong has continued to decline to below 50%, while the operating rate of major refineries has remained relatively stable. In addition, the inventories of refined oil products at both major and local refineries in China are generally maintained at low levels, keeping the supply-side pressure manageable, which provides a basis for price increases. At the same time, the resource shortage at major refineries has not been effectively alleviated, and some regions have even experienced tight resource conditions. Recent car travel has been relatively stable, providing some support for gasoline consumption; however, the continuously rising penetration rate of new energy vehicles is exerting structural pressure on the traditional gasoline market, significantly impacting it. High oil prices themselves also suppress the frequency of car use by some owners. The strong rise in crude oil prices strongly supports the refined oil market, leading to an upward trend in gasoline prices.
Regarding diesel: Recently, the supply side of the diesel market has remained stable. As the prolonged hot weather subsides, the start-up rates for infrastructure projects and outdoor industrial and mining operations have slightly increased, leading to a modest rise in the rigid demand for diesel consumption. The summer harvest has now concluded, resulting in a contraction in demand for agricultural fuel. With the end of the fishing ban in September, marine fuel consumption has picked up, further boosting diesel demand. Coupled with strong cost support keeping diesel prices at high levels, the diesel market has seen a significant upward trend.
Looking ahead, the crude oil market has entered a strong phase characterized by geopolitical risks taking the lead while fundamentals provide solid support. In the short term, oil prices are likely to remain volatile at high levels, trending slightly stronger. In the near term, the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict and persistently low shipping volumes through the Strait of Hormuz continue to underpin robust demand in the physical market. Coupled with the ongoing drawdown of global inventories, oil prices have found strong support around the $100 mark and will probably continue to fluctuate within a relatively strong range, with volatility amplifying in line with geopolitical developments. The strong support at high oil prices is also exerting upward pressure on China’s gasoline and diesel prices. However, the impact of high oil prices, alternative energy sources, and continued rainy weather is likely to keep gasoline and diesel consumption sluggish. Although high crude oil prices continue to support refined oil prices, demand concerns will eventually weigh on future price increases. As a result, gasoline and diesel prices are expected to remain relatively strong in the coming period.
