Urea market prices fluctuated and rose in March in China

March 31st News

I. Price Trends

According to the commodity market analysis system, as of March 31, the reference average price for small and medium-sized granular urea in China was 1,865 CNY/ton, an increase of 1.57% from the reference average price of 1,836 CNY/ton on March 1.

2. Market Analysis

Supply and Demand Situation

This month, the urea market price in China has been fluctuating and rising. In the first half of March, the urea price in China fluctuated upward. Affected by the geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, the international urea market strengthened, driving the rise of the futures market in China. The peak season for spring fertilization in China supported the market, with downstream players actively replenishing stocks, and manufacturers smoothly selling their products. In the second half of March, the international urea market remained strong, but the urea price in China slightly weakened due to inventory impacts. The operating rate of urea production in China remained high, with supply continuously increasing, while the demand for top-dressing wheat in the north slowed down. Under China's policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices, the fluctuation space of the urea market is limited.

Market Conditions

As of March 31, urea market prices in Shandong were around 1830-1900 CNY per ton, in Hebei 1830-1880 CNY per ton, in Henan 1820-1860 CNY per ton, and in Liaoning 1850-1900 CNY per ton.

As shown in the weekly K-line chart from January 5, 2026, to March 23, 2026, China's urea prices experienced both rises and falls during this period. In March, urea prices in China saw relatively significant increases, with the largest price increase occurring in the week of March 9, at 2.23%.

III. Future Market Forecast

Urea analysts believe: Recently, the urea market has been stabilizing. It is currently the peak season for spring plowing and fertilizer use, with downstream demand mainly driven by rigid needs, and market transactions are good. Under China's policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices, it is expected that the short-term urea market prices in China will undergo minor adjustments.