Support Turns from Strong to Weak, Shandong n-Butanol Prices Decrease by Over 10% in April

May 6th, according to the news

According to the commodity market analysis system, as of April 30, 2026, the reference price for n-butanol in Shandong, China was 7,666 CNY/ton, a decrease of 900 yuan from the reference price of 8,566 CNY/ton on April 1, representing a price decrease of 10.51%.

I. Review of Price Trends

In April, the market price of n-butanol in Shandong showed a trend of first rising and then falling. At the beginning of the month, the price of n-butanol quickly rose to a monthly high of 8,933 CNY/ton. Subsequently, due to insufficient support, the high price was short-lived, and the focus of n-butanol gradually declined, reaching a low point by the end of the month. As of April 30, the market price of n-butanol in the Shandong region of China was around 7,600-7,800 CNY/ton.

2. Analysis of Core Influential Factors

In April, the "rise and fall" trend of n-butanol prices was a direct reflection of the supply and demand balance quickly shifting from a tight equilibrium to a more relaxed one. The impact of supply and demand can be broken down into stages as follows:

Early April (1-8): Supply tightness + strong demand support, prices surged

Supply Side: At the beginning of the month, the supply of n-butanol showed a phased contraction, with market inventory at a low level. Multiple plants in China were either under maintenance or operating at low capacity, resulting in a low industry operating rate and limited spot circulation in the market. Additionally, some major factories had export orders, further reducing the domestic supply, leading to low factory inventories and a strong intention to maintain prices.

Demand Side: The market anticipates a peak season, and downstream buyers are replenishing their inventories at low prices, leading to a phase of increased rigid demand. Industries such as coatings, adhesives, and acrylic esters in China expect a "Silver April" peak season. Coupled with the fact that prices were at a low point at the beginning of the month, downstream companies in China are collectively taking the opportunity to replenish their inventories, resulting in active inquiries and transactions in the market.

Mid to late April (9-30): supply-demand contradiction becomes apparent

Supply Side: Butanol plants that were under maintenance have resumed production, leading to an increase in overall supply pressure in the market. As previously shut-down facilities restart operations, the industry's operating rate is rapidly recovering, and the supply of goods in the market is increasing. The previously tight supply situation is beginning to ease. Additionally, with some new plants expected to start commissioning, concerns about future supply increases are rising.

Demand Side: The short-lived surge in demand has come to an end, and downstream purchasing pace has slowed down. After a brief spike in demand during the “Golden March and Silver April” period, industries such as plasticizers and coatings have seen a slowdown in their raw material requirements. Large-scale restocking activities have declined, and as prices have risen, downstream buyers have begun to show resistance toward high-priced raw materials.

Future Market Forecast

Supply and Demand Direction Analysis

In April, the n-butanol market in Shandong, China, experienced a trend of first rising and then falling. The actual performance of the market trend reflected that the speed of supply recovery far exceeded the speed of demand recovery. Overall, there was a lack of incremental demand downstream, and rigid demand procurement could not absorb the new supply, leading the market to enter a downward channel characterized by strong supply and weak demand.

Entering May, it is expected that the market trend will mostly adjust within a range, and whether the demand side can steadily release still needs to be watched.

Technical Analysis

According to SpotCom data, from April 1st to 20th, the 10-day moving average of n-butanol was above the 20-day moving average, with the difference gradually narrowing. On April 20th, the 10-day moving average of n-butanol began to cross below the 20-day moving average, and the difference gradually widened. Auxiliary indicators show that the price of n-butanol is at a recent low but at a higher level in the medium term. It is judged that in the short term, there is still a risk of a decline in the n-butanol market. For future market conditions, it is recommended to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand information.